11 Apps That Pay You To Play Games – Can You Make Money ...

Tl;dr: fans of a video game are excited about the release of what could be the spiritual successor of their video game. Said developer makes very bold promises and obviously fails to deliver, finally releasing a very disappointing game and alienating most of the community.
I recently stumbled upon this subreddit; I've enjoyed reading most of the posts here and figured I had a few stories to share as well. From 2012 to about 2018, I was active (though with intermittent breaks) in a community of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 players. This was a small community, with no more than a few hundred active members at its heyday and only a few people active now. Despite its small size, there were definitely a few memorable instances of drama. This is one of those stories; it actually involved another game called Theme Park Studio, which – as you may expect from the title – was not what it promised to be.
Background
Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released in October 2004, developed by Frontier and published by Atari. It was primarily a theme park management game, where players have to earn money and keep guests happy in a theme park by constructing and maintaining rides, shops, paths, scenery and more. There was also a sandbox mode that allowed players to build without any monetary restrictions. A small but active community set out to build roller coasters and theme parks (and occasionally completely different projects) in this sandbox mode and share their results online.
While the game was good for its time and viewed positively by many, it did have some downsides. Firstly, the game used a grid: when placing rides and scenery, you were confined to this grid and had little freedom to place things where you want. Secondly, the roller coaster construction system was limited compared to similar games, and as a result most roller coasters were hardly very smooth. Thirdly, the game was poorly optimized. As an example: the game had a day-night cycle, but the game was basically unplayable at night, so people set the game to only daytime.
Over time, people became more and more ambitious in their projects, and these problems became more apparent. As a solution, lots of custom content (akin to mods in other games) was made by members of the community: custom scenery objects, custom rides and even custom roller coaster tracks. These objects were much more versatile and looked much better than most in-game content. As a result, people almost exclusively used custom content to build their projects. Combined with some smart picture and video editing, almost nothing was still recognizable from the original game.
While custom content brought a whole new level of versatility and arguably kept the community running for a long time, the aforementioned problems still persisted. Because the game was being pushed to its limits, people were wondering when a sequel was coming. By 2012, there was no word yet by Atari on a potential sequel, and many similar games from other video game publishers had failed to offer any meaningful improvement to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. However, this was soon to change.
The spiritual successor
Enter Pantera Entertainment, a small, unknown video game publisher and developer. In November 2012, they posted a trailer to Theme Park Studio, which presented itself as a theme park building tool. Unlike Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, which had a focus on park management, the focus was on building attractive theme parks and rides. Many of the aforementioned issues were solved in this game: there was no grid-based system that dictated where you had to build, roller coasters could be constructed with much more freedom, and the graphics looked more modern. One major feature was the ability to import custom content. Obviously this was also possible in Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, but only using third-party software. That the developers were now anticipating for this was a good sign.
The community was generally excited about Theme Park Studio: it looked to be the spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The staff from Pantera would even visit the forums (at the time, most of the community was active through online messaging boards) and would happily provide updates, answer questions and take suggestions. This left a good impression with most of the community.
Over the coming months, more and more promises were being made on new features and huge amounts of content. The game was looking to become a very ambitious project. Now, it would later be discovered that little development had actually been done on the game: the trailer had really only showed footage from Pantera’s earlier title, Hyper Rails. Nevertheless, the release date was set for summer 2013, and the community was still optimistic for a long time.
In April 2013, a Kickstarter campaign was set up. For the uninitiated, Kickstarter allows for developers to source crowdfunding for a project. Developers set a goal and have a set time to achieve that goal. People can ‘back’ a project by donate towards that goal, and in return receive rewards based on the amount they donated. Money only goes towards the project if that goal is actually reached; otherwise the ‘backers’ receive their money back. Well, Pantera set a goal of $80.000 for Theme Park Studio, to be fulfilled within a month. Backer rewards were ambitious: lower amounts would get you the game for free, both a physical and digital copy, and perhaps some merchandise, while those who backed larger amounts were allowed to suggest or design certain rides for the game, and the highest-tier backers (think $500 or more, which only a few people donated) would get you an invitation to a big release party. Now, keep these rewards in mind, as they’ll become important later on.
It took a while and people feared the goal wouldn’t be met, but thanks to enough promotion and a few generous donations, about $100.000 was raised, and the goal was met. Despite Pantera’s ambitious promises, the community was optimistic. Some high-standing members of the community were even assisting in the development of the game and were offering their custom content – made for Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 – to be used in Theme Park Studio. Unfortunately, as we would later discover, this hard work would never really pay off.
Early access
The Kickstarter campaign offered a release date of September 2013. As time went on, it became very apparent that this was unachievable. The game was delayed several times; first to later in 2013, then to April 2014. Finally, they announced that instead of waiting for the complete game, Theme Park Studio would enter Early Access on Steam in February 2014.
Early Access allows people to play a game before its full release. People can play the game and offer feedback to the developers, who can use this feedback to improve the game and add new content in free updates to the players. In this case, that would mean that Theme Park Studio would first release as a basic theme park builder, and that other features, such as new rides and the custom content importer would be added later.
Early Access is an example of something that works well on paper, but is often butchered in practice. When done well, Early Access is a win-win situation: players don’t have to wait to play the game but can get involved in its development, and developers will receive money which they can use to fund the rest of the development. Unfortunately, it is rarely done well, and there are many games released through Early Access that are flat-out unplayable or clearly unfinished. Similarly, many games never leave Early Access or only leave many years later, because developers have little incentive to improve and complete a game they’ve already received money for.
Well, Theme Park Studio would turn out to fit the latter category. Upon release, the game was... disappointing. Most notable was the lack of ability to build roller coasters: players could only build flat rides (simple rides such as a merry-go-round or a Ferris wheel). The game was also poorly optimized and didn’t look particularly great. Still, many people called for the community to be patient and wait for new updates to come: Pantera had provided a route map for the implementation of further updates to provide some perspective.
This implementation was generally very slow. For example, the ability to build roller coasters – a rather essential part of a theme park construction tool - didn’t come until August that year; even then, people weren’t happy about it, as it was unintuitive and difficult to use, and many considered it hardly an improvement from Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The community slowly grew divided. A sizeable group defended Theme Park Studio and called for people to be patient, but a growing group had become very critical of the game and its developers. However, besides lacking updates and producing a game of low quality, there were other glaring issues as well.
Pantera loses approval
Now, remember the aforementioned Kickstarter rewards? As time went on, it became increasingly clear that many of these rewards would never be released. Many people complained about not receiving digital access to the game once it was released through Early Access, despite promises from Pantera – and that was the easiest reward for them to fulfil. Even to this day, some people are yet to receive digital access. People were also losing hope about higher-tier rewards, such as physical copies of the game, merchandise and the release party.
Probably the most controversial reward tiers were those that allowed backers to design rides, however. More than 100 people had pledged enough money to have a ride suggestion implemented into the game. It turned out, however, that many of these suggestions would never see the light of day. On the forums, people complained about their suggestions being rejected, while some received no response from Pantera. When eventually an update was released that was supposed to contain rides suggested by backers, people noted that way fewer rides were added than that there were backers. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but I think no more than 10% saw their rides actually published in-game.
Now, resentment grew towards Pantera for failing to uphold their end of the bargain and releasing an unfinished, low-quality game. By this time, there was also not much left of the actively involved, feedback-taking staff that represented the game when it was first announced: the developer became notorious for failing to take and accept constructive criticism. Many people had their posts removed and accounts banned from the official Theme Park Studio forum for speaking out against the developer.
Another absurd rule on their forums was their stance on ‘dark rides’, mainly indoor rides based around creating an atmosphere above being thrilling, such as a haunted house. As the name suggests, many dark rides are dark: the atmosphere is creepy or scary, and many horror themes are used. Well, the forum banned the posting of rides containing demonic themes or otherwise being ‘sacrilegious’, effectively meaning most dark rides. This pissed off the community, as quite a few people made dark rides and this was seen as infringement on their creativity. It also spawned a series of memes on rides that were “too dark and sinister for Theme Park Studio”. Another questionable decision by the development team was to add VR support; while becoming the only theme park building or management game to have it, it was generally criticised because it would add very little to the game and so many other aspects of the game needed much more working on. I’m sure there were other decisions made by Pantera that received significant backlash from the community, but these I remember best.
The aftermath
Over time, interest in Theme Park Studio faded away and people generally gave up hope that they would ever receive their Kickstarter rewards. There were still a few avid supporters of the game, but the broken promises, slow progress, disappointing results and bad PR meant most people in the community had changed their stance over the years. The game was forgotten and slowly faded into irrelevance. There was no real way for backers to get their money back or otherwise hold Pantera accountable for the unfulfilled promises, an issue that other failed Kickstarter campaigns unfortunately also have. Amazingly, some of the backers reported actually receiving a physical copy of the game, albeit five or six years after the initial Kickstarter campaign, but similarly there are still people waiting for their rewards to this date.
Theme Park Studio was finally released in December 2016, after many years in development. It released without much fanfare and definitely without a release party that backers had paid hundreds, sometimes even thousands of dollars for; many people didn’t even notice it had left Early Access. The game never took off and its reviews on Steam are mostly negative. The entire fiasco made people much more sceptical of other new games: from 2014 onwards, many other theme park simulation games were announced and released, but people were much more cautiously optimistic about these games (and rightfully so; many of them failed, but those are stories for another time).
Eventually, the true spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released: Planet Coaster, developed by Frontier (the original developers of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3). It was released in November 2016, prompting some to think that the definitive release of Theme Park Studio only weeks later was a hasty attempt to piggyback off of that success. It did almost everything Theme Park Studio promised and offered the possibility to build much more detailed and complex rides. Over time, many people who played Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 switched over to Planet Coaster because of the vast improvements.
People generally forgot about Theme Park Studio, and many people wanted to leave it in the past. It’s hard to find many of the original forum posts on the topic. RCTLounge, one of the major forums on the topic, was closed in 2016 due to inactivity. In 2018, Shyguy’s World, another forum on the topic, actually removed the Theme Park Studios board and deleted all posts to forget about the ‘dark and sinister’ affair. As the forum’s owner said: “The first rule of Theme Park Studio... you do not talk about Theme Park Studio”. The official Theme Park Studios forums are also down and the website is vastly outdated. Most of this post was sourced by memories, the Wayback machine and the few threads I could still find.
Many people agreed that Pantera was probably a well-intentioned company that had simply bitten off more than they could chew. Clearly they had vastly underestimated the difficulty of this project and lost any drive to complete the project as it went on and support disappeared. Nevertheless, all the drama resulted in a bitter aftertaste for many people and changed people’s outlooks on the future releases of similar games.

Trying this again, as my original post on offmychest 3 days ago got marked as spam.
Today, January 2nd, my mum has died after 25 days intubated (COVID). Mum was 65 years old, with no pre-existing medical conditions and was relatively active. I want to share some of her life with random strangers, not sure why. I guess it counts as getting things off my chest. I’m no writer, and English is not my first language, so apologies for any piece of poor writing.
Mum was born in 1955 in an Italian colony in Brazil. She was the eldest of eight siblings (seven sisters, one brother). Mum’s family was quite poor and, as was customary and needed at the time, the eldest sibling had to help the mother bringing up the younger ones. Mum had to grow up fast, but rather than becoming harsh and hardened she still managed to remain the kindest and most supportive person you’d ever meet. You know how it is: each member of a family takes a role based on their most distinctive trait, and mum’s was kindness.
I only know morsels of information of my mum’s childhood years, but I do know that my grandfather struggled with alcoholism for ages before getting treatment. Mum and her second eldest sister were responsible for going out at night to look for him when he didn’t come back home. They would find him in bars playing cards and, sometimes, passed out in the gutters. Convincing him to come back home invariably lead to a beating. But it was either his drunken beating, which was easy to dodge, or my grandmother’s sober one, for disobeying. This was a small town, and everyone knew of mum’s family’s hardships and social embarrassments: whereas my grandparents were not always discriminated against, mum’s classmates were as cruel as children can be, picking on her because of old shoes, clothes, and alcoholic father.
Mum’s teenage years were apparently better: she was an attractive girl, and she started going out with this cool dude who played in a band. There were parties and friends, and she always described those years as good years. There weren’t many details in her stories from this period though. Now they are lost, and I feel that I should have asked more.
During her late teenage years, mum’s family moved to the big city. This move was part of an effort to get my grandfather away from his alcoholism. My grandmother hustled and managed to secure enough money for my grandfather and her to open a small grocery store. By then, almost all of my aunties were beautiful, attractive young women, and they all worked at the shop. The grocery store was in an area full of “rooms” for single young men - I’m sure that’s one of the reasons why the business thrived so much. One of these young men was good looking and could play the guitar well. He started teaching the guitar to my auntie first, and soon they were a couple. Somehow, he then started dating my mum. There are conflicting accounts about how this happened, but I’m convinced that there was some form of overlap in the transition. It seems to have become a taboo subject in the family, so I never asked for clarification. Maybe now that mum is gone, I can ask the auntie about it. Either way, the guitar teacher married my mum when she was 24. I was born shortly after, and my sister three years later.
We have lots of records of my young years: my parents certainly didn’t cut costs on photos. I have few, but clear memories back from when I was around four. Mum was affectionate, patient, kind and seemingly happy. She would give me strong hugs, and I felt save and loved. She also never let her conjugal problems transpire, and I came to find out later in life that there were many of those. My dad cheated on her repeatedly, but they always chose to stay together because of my sister and I, as well as society and family pressure – these were the 80s in Brazil after all. But like I said, she always shielded my sister and I from all of that.
Like many teenagers, my teenage years were tough: I was depressed, snotty and ungrateful. My sister also had a rough teenage. Years later I came to see that mum was suffering a lot because of our behaviour, and was trying as best as she could to adapt, running around trying to take care for us with nothing but kindness, and we always pushed her away, the way teenagers do. I remember one specific occasion when she thought I was trying to come out to her as gay: she immediately started saying that I should be free love who I wanted, that I would have her full support, and that all she wanted was for me to be happy. Just to put this in context, these were the 90s in Southern Brazil, where being gay was one of the worst things people could imagine “happening” to someone. But this was the kind of person mum was: she saw the person, not the zeitgeist. She wouldn’t go on a march for gay rights, but would see people as people, without the labels. She never made a politically incorrect comment, even before “politically correctness” became a thing. Once I realised she was thinking I was gay I once more rejected her kindness, told her she was stupid, and behaved like the asshole that I was. I did apologise for everything I could remember years later, but that doesn’t erase the way I treated her, or the way I feel about it.
When I was nineteen, I moved to the UK. After a few years my sister started her own family and left the house too. A couple of years later, our dog died. My mum and dad finally decided to get an amicable divorce then: they considered their job done in regard to family, and that there was nothing left to bind them to each other. They wisely decided to move on with their own lives. It became clear after that that my parents were really incompatible to start with, and sacrifices were made by both to give us a “good” and “standard” upbringing, free of social discrimination. My parents remained friends of sorts until today.
Mum didn’t waste any more time of her life and started going out with someone straight away. This man was a lot younger than her, which she was always a bit overly aware of, but he gave her eleven years of profound happiness. She rediscovered herself as a mature, sensual woman, and felt loved again, both emotionally and sexually.
As a grown man, my relationship with my mum was one of friendship, which allowed us to talk openly about matters of the heart. She always said that my stepfather gave her some of her happiest years. He was the person who drove her to hospital when her symptoms worsened, stayed in hospital with her for nearly two weeks until she was taken to ICU. He was called to ICU yesterday to say goodbye, and was next to her last night, one hour before she died. I asked him to say some words in her ear: “your son, daughter, husband and family are all well and happy”. She was fortunate enough to get hospitalised and treated with dignity during her COVID ordeal. Mum died in an induced coma, without any pain or discomfort.
Mum never stopped helping to bring up the younger ones in the family: all of my cousins say she was their favourite aunty. She earned the nickname “pata” (“goose”) amongst my them: the reason is unrelated to the mother goose analogy, but I think it’s a cool nickname for an aunty. Her work colleagues say she was the same at work: always kind to everyone, and people would often discuss their personal life with her because she was a good listener. Mum was always an open book, and never played games. Sure, we didn’t agree on everything, but as far as our relationship goes, I have nothing but fond memories of her. Mum loved plants, especially flowers, food and Italian music.
Mum lived a full life and leaves a loving family behind. Her mayo and Christmas stuffing will be sorely missed. She died too early, but I’m sure anyone who ever lost a loved one feels the same, regardless of their age. I just wish I had more time to spend with her in future.

From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..

Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy

Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.

The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...

Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:

• Dec 1996 - 1997 Ford F-150 - Truck of the Year
  
• Jan 1997 - Ford profits up 82 percent
  
• Oct 1997 - Ford profits up 64 percent
  
• Jan 1998 - Ford profits up 56 percent
  

They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:

• Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
  
• Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
  

Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:

Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.

Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).

We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.

Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:

• Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
  
• Current estimates place over 20% of reservation holders as first-time Ford buyers.
  
• The most expensive trim, the limited ‘First Edition’, has already sold out.
  

Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.

• Source 1
  
• Source 2
  
• Source 3
  

The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:

• The 2021 Ford F-150 Is So Stuffed With New Tech & Gadgets That Even Tesla Owners Are Impressed!
  
• DeMuro - The 2021 Ford F-150 Is Totally New and Really Impressive
  
• Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
  

Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:

• Ford partnering with Rivian in a $500M deal. Product yet to be released.
  
• Google partnership that caused the intraday spike on 2/2.
  
• Ford is rumored to secure the USPS contract since deal talks are falling through with WKHS.
  

The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.

• There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
  
• Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
  
• Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
  
• CTO Dr. Ken Washington bio. Ex Lockheed.
  
• Kennard on the board.. PE guy, on the AT&T board and former FCC chairman.
  
• Vojvodich. Ex CRM and ADHZ.
  
• Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
  

English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:

Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.

This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):

Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.

Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:

• Profitable company that has solid cash flow
  
• Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
  
• Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
  
• A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
  
• A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
  

Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA

I don't understand how Crunchyroll thought it was okay to hold a soft launch for weeks before the global launch, and give global launch players zero ways to catch up to them. To make matters worse, they are launching clan battle in a few days. Global launch players need all the help they can get in order to close the gap, but it will only widen because soft-launch players will get much better rewards due to their level + resource gap.
As everyone knows, this is the type of game that is completely balanced around "time". Every day that passes, you get at least 1000+ exp, mana, shards, equipment, arena and dungeon coins. Many F2P players will refresh 3-6 times a day on Stamina as the Jewel cost scales from 40 -> 60 -> 100. The more days you play compared to someone else, the far higher the gap becomes.
In other words, the game is meant to be enjoyed with everyone starting on an even playing field. How do I best spend my limited resources every day, knowing that every choice comes with an opportunity cost? Which characters should I invest in with my limited mana and limited stamina to farm for equips? Should I pull now and get an immediate power spike, or wait for a better banner? Should I push levels with jewels, or burn my divine amulets so that I can get a higher rank in arena, thereby giving me the trade-off of accelerated arena rewards?
The only way to catch up with soft-launchers is to spend money. But if the soft launcher spent the same amount of money as a global launcher, the soft launcher would still be ahead, especially with the extreme value presented in the low cost options which scale with time (such as dungeon pass). I believe that global launch f2p players should be on a level playing field with soft launch f2p players, and that global launch whale players should be on a level playing field with soft launch whales. This is not currently the case.
I did not originally notice this issue because Arena is composed of multiple different brackets, and I am fortunate enough to be in a bracket filled with other global-launch players. I am able to be in the top 100 in Arena for my bracket despite my 2* Peco, because everyone else in my bracket has played for the same amount of time as me and is making the same trade-offs. However, once I entered Princess Arena, I noticed the sheer volume of soft-launchers at the top ranks. This is easily verifiable via their profile, which shows when they first entered regular arena (sometimes starting as far back as December). This was the first time I experienced the sheer disparity in strength between players who have a month of extra play-time.
I learned recently that the "Jump Start Gacha" was even available to soft-launch players. This is exactly the type of deal that would help bridge the gap between soft launch and global launch players, but for some reason they offered the deal to soft launch players as well (???)
With the launch of clan battle in a few days time, this gap will only widen. Top performing clans will consist primarily, if not entirely of soft-launch players. Global launch players will fall even further behind with lower jewel income, memory shards and lower clan coin income (which means those who did not reroll for Makoto will have an even harder time getting the clan coins necessary for a character that is SSS tier in CB). In addition, they even buffed rewards for top ranking clans significantly, while keeping ranks 150+ roughly the same. This means that the top 150 clans, consisting mostly of soft-launch players will earn significantly more resources than global launchers, resulting in an even wider gap.
Some of the power gap will close within the next few/several months as players reach the level/equipment cap and farm sufficient shards. However, by that point, they will have already missed a significant portion of Jewels from placing highly in Princess Arena/Clan Battles. These jewels are needed to pull for limited edition units or to spark for meta defining units, or perhaps just your waifu, even if you aren't playing for the pvp aspect.
For disclosure, I am not a free to play player. Jewels became worth a monetary value to me when I spent $120 AUD on 7500 jewels. To put this into perspective, if any global launch player one day spends money on gems for this game, I'd urge them to think back to how they were denied an even playing field by Crunchyroll, and had to spend money on something they shouldn't have needed to if they weren't at a disadvantage from day 1 of the global launch. Criticising global launch players for not downloading an APK is not a fair argument in my opinion.
My suggestion is that Crunchyroll should provide additional catch-up mechanics to close the gap between soft launch and global launch. This can take the form of special campaigns for accounts flagged as Global Launch players (such as 1.5x increased exp/mana gain up to a certain date or level cap), or to sell special packs in the shop similar to the jump start gacha, but only available to global launch players. This would allow soft launch players to retain several of their advantages, but give global launch players a fighting chance in Princess Arena/Clan Battles.
Usually I would not bother with this type of thing, but I felt inspired by CS_TimaeuSS and the recent action from Crunchyroll. This is a game which I heavily enjoy and have supported financially, but I won't lie and say that this issue has not impacted my overall enjoyment of the game.

• The original author's account was deleted, so unfortunately I can't credit them. Regardless, full credit to them. This post was included in the deletion, so it took a decent amount of digging to find and save. Shoutout to u/adamfixeseverything. Enjoy. -

Hey guys,
I thought I’d post about my thoughts on MMED. First of all, please do your own due diligence and do not fall victim to the pump, hype and euphoria. These are highly speculative investments and have significant risk associated. All that said, there have been many requests for fundamental analysis and MMED projections so I wanted to provide my thoughts.
*All figures in USD (market cap, sales) except for my investment holdings. I purchased MMED.NE shares. Source data available as well, but got messy with all the 10-k filings and links in the table.
Entry Point
First and foremost, I want to address the most commonly raised question on this thread: “Is it too late to buy MMED?” Any investment is subject to the risk / reward paradigm. Those that got in at $0.3 deserve every penny they earned as MMED was by definition a penny stock and one of the most risky investments you could own. Since then, it has grown tremendously due to scientific milestones which have pointed to significant progress in the industry.
The milestones MMED has achieved have DERISKED MMED from a penny stock to a small cap biotech company with a very large drug portfolio and numerous future catalysts. I do not expect to make 10x my investment in a week, nor should you. Is there still tremendous upside even at the current valuation of ~$1.5bn? I strongly believe so and will let my position reinforce that.
I entered this space with an average cost of ~$4.9 CAD, holding 311,206 shares, and a book value of ~1.5MM. Yes you read that correctly. Do I panic every day and check the ticker? No. Does my heart beat thinking of the time I evaporated ~$500,000 in unrealized loss when the stock was at $3.4? No. In fact, I continue to pick up shares at what I believe is a discounted valuation. There will be many that look at $4.9 entry point and think that even I got in at the bottom. It’s all relative.
​
OP's Original Investment
I only invested what I could afford to lose and although $1.5MM is a large sum of money, it is not my entire portfolio, nor would it impact my daily life. If I lost it all it would not impact my ability to service my mortgage, pay my bills, impact my other investments, nor prohibit me from doing the things I love. I continue to hold dry powder and monitor my investment on a monthly basis, while continuing to buy following successful milestones.
This is a very long term play that could fundamentally change the way we treat the body’s most important organ. We are just getting started. I have a very strong conviction on the future outcome of this industry and that is the reason I couldn’t be bothered about short term fluctuations. An important question to ask yourself is whether you believe MMED can reach its next scientific milestone. Take things one step at a time and is there a probability the next scientific update will be positive? Emphasis on science, ignoring NASDAQ, candlesticks, and capital structure (for now).
Institutional Capital
I work in finance (albeit project finance / private equity, and don’t value stocks for a living, so don’t consider me an expert here) but already know of a few moderately capitalized asset managers that are now participating in MMED. The recent bought deals are evidence of sophisticated capital flowing into this industry. I personally qualify as an ‘accredited investor’ and am having conversations constantly with folks in my circles who are investing heavily into these stocks. As more institutional capital flows in, the more stable these stocks become. Of course, this is all relative.
Access to liquidity
As with all brand new industries, the capital requirement is immense in order to bring products to market. What drew me into the space was the fact that MMED did raise capital. Biotech stocks do not have cashflow, thus their only path to fund operations is through equity raises. The fact that MMED was able to raise over $237MM CAD since May 2019 is a positive for this company. Yes it is dilutive, and good job for paying attention in finance 101 class, but bootstrapping a biotech company is not possible, nor is servicing debt.
The path to commercialization of will be full of obstacles, however a strong balance sheet with sufficient capital gives MMED the resources to get there. The current valuation has tremendous upside following scientific milestones and future equity raises and dilutions are a good thing, as it will be at an increased valuation.
There are definitely smaller cap companies out there that may double overnight, however for the risk / reward, I do not feel comfortable owning companies that don’t have a large balance sheet, nor a diversified drug portfolio.
Believe in the Science
I do not feel I am in a position to write original content on the efficacy of these drugs. I have done my research and read a fair number of published studies but anything that I write would simply be regurgitating what others have said.
The biggest investors in this space are those with personal experiences with psychedelics because you have first-hand experience of the profound meaning extracted from one treatment. The ability to dissolve your ego enables you to deal with the root cause of so many problems ranging from depression, PTSD and addition, without approaching the problem by numbing symptoms. Herein lies the inherent value of this industry and will simply take time to prove it through trails. I have the conviction to continue to invest because I believe in the science. The data to reinforce this is on its way, and I personally want to invest now, knowing that the likelihood of very significant catalysts are probable.
Forecasts
This of course is the elephant in the room for early investors, later[er] investors and bears alike. Is a $1.5bn market cap pricing in all of the upside already? Is this a $100bn stock? This company has zero revenues, shouldn’t it be worth zero?
The truth is, no one knows. There is tremendous risk with this company. However, I will not be selling unless we see some significant negative scientific outcomes. Again, less emphasis on stock price, NASDAQ, more emphasis on the science. Everything else will follow.
The various ways to value a company (DCF, sales / earnings multiples, liquidation value etc) all have their issues with an early stage company of this nature. Any sort of bottoms up DCF analysis is just guessing because variables such as patient count, dosage, pricing, market share, market penetration, amongst other have far too much variation to come up with a reliable figure. Discount rates and time horizon can favour your outcome depending on how aggressive / conservative you are.
Thus, the way I like to look at this market is a best case scenario for a single drug, based off historical sales data from one company and one drug. This implicitly takes into account patient dosage, competition, market share, market penetration etc, because one drug from one company has already proven its ability to capture such sales data.
​
Data
I have broken out annual sales data for various comparable drugs according to MMED’s current pipeline offering. This is the inherent benefit of MMED, is that it has a diverse portfolio covering many underserved issues. Like many of you, I believe MMED’s biggest blockbuster will be Layla, given the problem of Opioid addition plus MMED’s IP rights on 18-MC to corner sales. Suboxone is the current drug on the market due to delayed onset effects ranging from 24-36 hours, compared to someone in withdrawal uses fast acting opioids 3-4 times a day. Suboxone itself however is still addictive and has a long list of negative side effects. Furthermore, it does not correct dopamine dysregulation in patients.
The sales of Suboxone alone are growing at an ~9% CAGR, with sales expected to reach ~$4bn in 2028
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079779/0/en/Opioid-Use-Disorder-OUD-in-8-Major-Markets-2018-2028-Reformulations-of-Buprenorphine-Will-Drive-Growth.html.
The use case for 18-MC however, does not stop at Opioid addiction, and can be applied to alcohol dependency and smoking dependency among others. This means the TAM for 18-MC could be significantly larger than the existing market captured by Suboxone given its smaller demographics relative to 18-MC. Could Layla exhibit sales greater than Suboxone one day? Who knows. Sticking with comp sales for the analysis for now.
Various anxiety, depression and ADHD medication is also shown in the table to show sales potential of Lucy, Albert and the micro dose programmes.
Is there a possibility of a LSD, 18-MC, or LSD compound or derivative achieving blockbuster drug status? Do you think there is an inherent benefit to a psychedelic compared to an antidepressant sedative with side effects such as nausea, weight gain etc?
Your perceived probability and sales outcomes depends on whether you believe in the science. Those that don’t can easily be skeptical of a $1.5bn market cap many years away from profitability.
Those that do, look at the next half a dozen clinical trial outcomes as very probable and thus have applied a less punitive discount to the stock valuation. I have rationalized my decision to invest at $1.5MM because of my own perceived discount rate and confidence in the next 12 months of positive catalysts.
Valuation Multiples
Now, as many of you know, investors pay a multiple for the future earnings of a company, today. If a drug makes $1bn annually, investors will pay a multiple of future earnings expected over the drugs lifetime, discounted by various factors.
There are various metrics to use here, ranging from Enterprise Value / Sales or various types of earnings metrics. MMED is years away from having a real operating company, anything to sell, or even the corporate infrastructure to get it to market. However, the question has always been, how big do you think this company could get?
This is where things can get tricky. We used peak annual sales in the last section to forecast comparable estimates for MMED revenues. Thus, I believe it is appropriate to use mature, large cap trading multiples instead of early stage bio techs, as our revenue estimates were mature figures with stabilized growth. If we were to use companies / drugs earlier in their lifecycle or clinical phases, the trading multiples would be much higher because the market is buying potential future sales. Can’t have it both ways.
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Chart
All of the chart data in the graph is specific to the pharma industry. However, there are various subsectors to the industry such as Contract Development Manufacturing and Contract Research Organization. MMED would likely have to partner with each of these types of firms to scale its business, better assess market size etc, but wouldn’t trade at similar multiples given a different business model. Same goes for Packaging and Distribution.
The graph also shows S&P average which is a good rule of thumb.
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Other chart
Although the chart gives a good reference point for pharma multiples, I wanted to look at valuation from a more company specific perspective. The chart above shows large cap specialty pharma companies that are publically traded. This will give you an approximate median value of what the market is willing to pay for a company that has a certain amount of sales. As you can see in the green box, industry multiples of EV/EBIITDA or EV/Sales will basically get you to the same place. Median pharma industry EBITDA margins are in the 40% range with EV/Sales at ~4x vs EV/EBITDA of 10x.
Note that the above list of trading comps is stale data, as of Sept ’19. I only want to use public data and have refrained from using Bloomberg, Cap IQ etc. Thus the information I’m posting is merely reposts of info available on Google. As you can see, Allergan is listed in this table as a live trading comp, and has since been acquired by AbbVie. Accordingly, I want to highlight some notable M+A activity:
Amgen acquires Celgne’s plaque psoriasis drug, Otezla $13.4bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.6x Thermo Fisher acquires Qiagen for $11.5bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.3x Abbvie acquires Allergan for $84.2bn: EV / LTM Sales = 5.4x Elanco acquires Bayer’s animal health unit for $7.6bn: EV / LTM Sales = 4.5x As you can see, companies are willing to pay a premium in M&A to acquire competitors and drugs, due to synergies, reduction in SG&A etc.
This is a very long winded way of showing that if one of MMED’s compounds hits, and exhibits sales in line with any sort of comparable drug from the table above, this could be a $20-30 billion dollar company (~4bn*5-7x). If several of these drugs reach commercialization, this is potentially a $100 billion dollar company.
Now I agree that these projections are completely outlandish right now. I’m simply doing the exercise you all wanted.
Feel free to guess at your own forecast sales and multiply out enterprise value using the above metrics. Before you rip me apart for the extreme optimism, I understand that I’m using multiples for stable, reputable, large cap pharma. I understand that there is an extreme amount of stigma attached to psychedelics and achieving ubiquity for these treatments is a large uphill battle. There is an enormous amount of work, luck and time from now until sales and this is not to be under estimated.
Do I think MMED is worth $30-$100bn today? No.
Do I think MMED is worth somewhere in between today’s valuation and $30-$100bn?
Depends whether you believe in the science. If you’re reading this, odds are you do. I invested because I believe it too.
So instead, let’s take a lazy man’s approach to valuation and take things one step at a time.
Simpler Approach to Valuation
The exercise above is to show you all the immense potential of MMED’s drug portfolio. Do I think MMED is the next Pfizer, Abbie Vie or Eli Lilly? No. This is not a $500bn dollar company. However, I do genuinely think there is tremendous upside not factored into the pricing for this stock.
Fundamental analysis aside, I think the simplest way to approach valuation is from a catalyst + efficient market hypothesis perspective. Markets are not fully efficient, nor even semi-efficient, but there is some sort of reasoning in believing what the market is willing to pay. The obvious flaws in this are that the market right is riddled with irrational investors and a market of 300m financially illiterate traders isn’t more efficient than an illiquid market of 10 rational ones. As of today’s post there is a discount to the $4.40 price. To me, that’s just more opportunity to continue to scoop up more shares.
I have stayed out of the industry in the early days because truthfully I did not know which stocks to pick. Since then, much smarter people than me have done their diligence and allocated their capital to the companies that they believe are winners. This is part of an efficient market hypothesis.
Sophisticated capital flowed into MMED @ 4.40 / share, with the expectation to make a profit. I also, invested in this company at $4.9/share, with the expectation to make a profit. If we establish this as a baseline, do we believe there will be more positive than negative catalysts in the next year and in the future, such that we will see accretion in the share price? Conversely, if we see negative outcomes in future catalysts, it will cause erosion in the stock valuation. Below are near term events which should have a significant impact on share price:
Project Lucy
Phase 2 readout– Q1 2021 Open IND w/ FDA for Phase 2b – Q3 2021 Project Layla
Phase 2a study– Second half of 2021 Strategic Pharma Partner Potential – Late 2021 Various
Combined MDMA LSD Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 IV DMT Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 First ever Phase 2a clinical trial Microdose LSD – Q3 2021 Patent filed for neutralizer technology for LSD to shortestop hallucinogenic effects Game changer for safe, regulated environment for clinical administration Given that Phase 1 studies are focused on safety, what are the odds clinically developed LSD / MDMA fails a safety test?
Given that Phase 2 studies are focused on proof of concept and method, what are the odds the clinically designed process fails the test?
Believe in the science.
Each one of these incremental catalysts derisks MMED, and will bring the valuation closer to ‘blockbuster drug’ status, albeit inches at a time. Just as the bought deal derisked this company for me to participate, achievements in clinical trials will be evidence for more investors to jump in as well. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and guess at how large this company can get. Just think of what is the next step and do your own evaluation as to whether achieving it is realistic. Once we get through the above list, there will be more milestones to pass such as Phase 2bs and 3s. If we establish $4.40 as the baseline currently and MMED has a successful outcome in any of the previously listed catalysts, there should be a significant accretion in valuation.
There is a noticeable omission for most of you, in that I’ve left out the NASDAQ up listing, future dilutions and general capital structuring events. To me, a NASDAQ uplisting is irrelevant. This will add liquidity, although probably more volatility, but changes zero fundamentals about the stock. It should however, add more weight to the efficient market hypothesis and erase the discount I believe this stock is trading at. We’ll see some analyst coverage with price targets that will attract more investors, but the fundamentals of the stock do not change.
With respect to stock price, it is impossible to forecast this because the capital structure of this company is completely unknown. IF we can even get to revenue generation, and this becomes a $30-100bn company, how much dilution will there be from now until then to back out a share price? The point is that there is so much runway in share price accretion from now until then, that I’m not bothered with anything finance related for this company. There is potential for 50-70x accretion in the value of this company. The focus needs to be on the science. MMED has raised enough money to get though its next set of obstacles and fund operations, thus insolvency risk has fallen away for now which is really the only important financial point for early stage biotech.
Let’s take things one step at a time, believe in the science and be patient.
Cash position & Expenditures
As you can see below, the quarterly burn payroll burn rate is quite low for MMED relative to its cash position. It’s hard to discern which items under their historical expenditures are one off versus recurring, thus difficult to calculate their exact run rate. However, the huge positive here the low ratio of payroll relative to its cash.
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Data table
Next up we have the projected use of proceeds from their latest raise, net of underwriter expenses. Now that the Over-Allotment has been exercised, MMED has additional capital that it has further allocated to Albert, Lucy, Layla and the Microdose LSD program.
​ Proceeds Table
General takeaway is that MMED is well enough capitalized to get through its next phase of milestones. I will be keeping an eye on news surrounding the Microdose LSD program. Estimates at this stage for Phase 2a are $3-4m and the results of which will inform capital expenditures required for future phases. A positive milestone in Q3 ’21 should be an incredibly positive catalyst for this company.
Proving that you’ve raised capital and have enough cashflow to get to the next step doesn’t guarantee we’ve picked the winner in the industry. It does however give me confidence that MMED will continue to be a going concern for at least the short term and get to a point when new investors can come in at a much higher valuation. This is a real risk for the penny stocks out there without capital or IP, and that is the reason I chose MMED.
Edit: Did some re-formatting to make it easier to read cause it's pretty lengthy and there's a lot of details. Hopefully it helps.
Edit #2: I went back into the trash compacter and salvaged the original data and charts since some people were asking. The resolution may be questionable, so apologies for that, you might have to zoom in.

As of this year I have finally achieved a net worth of 6 figures~ (108k to be exact).
TLDR; save schmoney and get that honey! P.S. skip to “EDIT”. Im illiterate and lost all my brain cells watching tIkTok so I wrote my original post incorrectly and confused some folks.
I started doing a traineeship at 17-18 as a receptionist earning $20,000 a year with no money to my name and now in just 4 years here I am (I moved out at 18 too with no help).
For the first 2.5 years I aimed to saved 20,000 a year in a high interest savings account.
Since late 2019 I've been dipping my feet into investing a small amount and I admit, I've lost a lot of money. Since then, I've learned my investing behaviors, improved my knowledge and hope to start making real gains.
I don't drive because I'm scared to get my P's lol - so that's obviously helped.
I didn't go to uni since I didn't know what I wanted to do and that definitely helped since I don't need to pay any fees (I'm a permanent resident and tbh kinda stupid when I was 17 I thought I had to pay since I wasn't a citizen yet oh well) This let me work full-time and get into the office early.
I haven't travelled anywhere which is a shame but it has helped with my savings. As travel restrictions ease, I hope I can see more of the world soon!
I'm typing here because I'm proud of myself and I don't have anyone to share my success with.
I'd like to thank this subreddit for guiding me and to everyone for sharing their FIRE goals and tips.
EDIT:
Damn I didn't expect to get this many replies. Sorry for not clarifying!
​

• A description of the journey you took to get to where you presently are.

2016: graduate HS (17 yrs old)
2017: 18 years old doing a 1 year traineeship as a receptionist where I lived at home, my contract meant I was paid only 20k a year and because I lived at home I could save 10k that year.
2018 - Moved out in February and got my first real job as a receptionist on 60k p.a - that allowed me to save more lol hence the 20k savings a year. I turned 19 in may. I didn't ask or get any help from my parents because my parents are divorced, my dad and I are estranged and my mom was struggling to raise me and my brother :( I don't have any family here either that I can depend on, it's just me. Rent was $200 a week and idk about bills but it was between 4 people. How I moved out? Abusive household :x
2019 - Still renting, same job, same pay, continue to lived frugally, hit goal of 20k savings in bank account again, invested $5000 lost like $2000 lol but it's okay I was expecting to lose since I didn't know what I was doing. And for me I was scared coz I worked so hard to save all this money and here I am losing it. Rent was the same, bills the same.
2020 - still renting, same job, salary increase to 63k a year for added responsibilities, continue to live below my means, hit goal of 20k savings in bank account. Learned more about investing, portfolio is now $10k not from gains but from me topping up my funds slowly. No real gains, just learning. New rental for $250, bills for 4 people.
2021 - still renting, same job but now I'm an office assistant and receptionist, same salary, , live below my means, still looking to save 20k this year but I also hope to see some gains for once in my life since I reevaluated my portfolio. I'm only young and I'm trying my best. There really is no trick to it I'm literally saving 20,000 a year that's it (just under $400 a week if you break it down. Rent for $250 incl. bills.
Lifestyle: Don't drink or party because I have no friends or a social life :( I take public transport and walk everywhere, I shop budget at groceries, I try to cook at home because I'm also living an active lifestyle and drinking/eating out too much etc won't work in the long term for my health fitness goals. I didn't go to uni, I don't have a car and I'm still on my Ls which are set to expire next month oops.
Honestly the sacrifice was that I haven't lived...I can't go to nice places, I see so many girls doing their hair, makeup, nails lashes but I jsut don't even though I want to. I've haven't travelled overseas at all by myself. I was scared that If I don't hit this goal of 100k by 23 I'll be in trouble, what if I'm sick ,etc what if I need surgery because I don't have anyone to depend on. I've been working full time since 17 while my friends can party, go overseas, go to brunches and road trips I can't do any of that :( At the back of mind I just think about how I will never ever let someone have power over me because they control my finances and render me hopeless. I grew up in an environment where I was silenced and beat because I had no choice but to obey the authority. I, one day want my own home where I can say this is mine. I did this. You all tried to beat me down but here I am due to my own will. And when I think about that, I owe it to myself to do this now and work for a better future.
Note: Current figures below
HostPlus Indexed Balanced Super: 20,925.47
Westpac LifeSavings acct: $61188.97
Portfolio: $25,885.56 at the time of writing but I gained $1,925.63 today (yay!) Please also note that I've only recently been strengthening my portfolio, and I'm talking December 20 where i was still losing. Most of the sum here was transferred from my bank account but I've made gains of 5k so far this year since I reevaluated my portfolio in early jan. My next goal is to earn 20k a year from my portfolio so that way I can have a total of 40k savings/earnings a year. I don't know if I can do this but we can only try! I've got a lock of stocks yes (don't come for me), but I'm getting into ETF'S now and will build them up over the years ahead.
If there's a few thousand that doesn't add up it's probably the scraps I salvaged from my tax return lol. I'm no math guru sorry but I have no interest in trying to trick anyone here lol.

• What your past/current strategy has been and an evaluation of its performance.

It's pretty dumb LOL, I get why some of ya'll be pressed in the comments. I literally made this 20k a year savings plan when I got my real job at 18 and just went with it. Like I don't want this stuff to be hard, I just want life to be simple and to be happy. I would've started investing in ETF's earlier and salary sacrificed to my super more (just $200 a week). I didn't need to be so stressed and needed to trust myself to get out of my shitty situation. Moving forward gonna get rid of me stonks and learn how to go about ETF's smartly for the long run and idk if anyone has pointers please share. I don't really have any skills so I'm going to get a diploma and just keep learning, because the more I earn the more I can save/invest right? For anyone that's curious how this relates to FIRE, retirement isn't on the radar yet but being financially independent is a part of FIRE and I think I'm on my way there :)
Jks just go to ASX_bets and look for rocket emojis! 🚀🚀🚀
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• Advice for others who may be in a similar situation to you.

May not be the most impressive or savvy way but it's how I did it.

• Make a rule. I note down all my expenses and then see what I have leftover from my salary. I want to save as much as I can so my priority is to "pay myself" first. Work out a decent amount to give yourself for spending and literally put everything else away. Doesn't matter if it's only $200 or if you can save $1000+ It's about building lifelong habits, it might suck at first but you become accustomed to it. Build good habits, maintain consistency
• Learn basic financial concepts. I just read the ASIC's Moneysmart website and the Barefoot investor. It's like weightlifting, once you get a hold of the basics you can just grow them gains baby. It was really confusing though, lots of books are for idk, money-savvy older people based in America in suits or something. I asked myself wtf is a ROTH IRA so many times. Lots of things out there are really complicated and don't help/target young people so I just figured out my own way. It can be really overwhelming and confusing stuff, but don't worry it's okay! Do it for you and learn things that serve you and help you reach your goals. F*** derivatives, whatever the hell that means!
• Lifestyle changes: Re-evaluate what's necessary. For me, it's the gym and eating out once or twice a week at your local Vietnamese for $11 pho lol, so my life isn't very expensive. My interests are very inexpensive, I enjoy walking outside to meet my daily step count, I enjoy playing games at home, I love cooking at home and it means I get to hone my cooking skills. I like my makeup and I value looking presentable but I buy drugstore makeup when they're on sale (thank you Priceline you are my life), no Fenty beauty for me :( Buy staple clothing, obviously buy stuff that makes you look and feel good but you defs don't need to get that corset top from House of CB because like...no I take it back. It's a need.
• Know your why: If your reason is strong enough you'll just do it.
• To anyone from abusive homes or relationships, one day you will escape and be able to live life on your terms. I didn't think it was necessary to go on a whole spiel about my story but keep your head up high you will make it, and you will heal in your own pace. I felt like my life truly began when I moved out...it's a hard and lonely journey but it will be very rewarding in the end. I couldn't afford therapy and still haven't gone but using kids helpline (free hotline for kids, teens and young adults up to the age of 25) really helped me when I needed to be heard.
• Please live your youth if you're my age or just live life in general! When you're in survival mode you can't enjoy the pleasures of life because you don't have a choice. Make it a goal to do something exciting every month or however often you have the time, money and resources to do so. For example, for valentine's Day I'm going on a picnic and making a cheese platter for two for $35! It's cute, affordable and sweet :D