TL;DR: Man with too much time on his hands goes deep down the rabbit hole on a concept this sub already didn’t seem that enthusiastic about. If you really want to skip ahead, CTRL+F “verdict” and it’ll get you there. Two days ago,
u/MrPhillyj2wns made a post
asking whether USL should launch a D1 league in order to compete in Concacaf. From the top voted replies, it appears this made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
But I’ve been at home for eight weeks and I am terribly, terribly bored.
So, I present to you this overview of what the USL pyramid might look like if Jake Edwards got a head of steam and attempted to establish a USSF-sanctioned first division.
This is by no means an endorsement of such a proposal or even a suggestion that USL SHOULD do such a thing. It is merely an examination of whether they COULD. Welcome to the
Thunderdome USL Premiership
First, there are some base-level assumptions we must make in this exercise, because it makes me feel more scientific and not like a guy who wrote this on Sunday while watching the Belarusian Premier League (Go BATE Borisov!).
- All D1 teams must comply with known USSF requirements for D1 leagues (more on that later).
- MLS, not liking this move, will immediately remove all directly-owned affiliate clubs from the USL structure (this does not include hybrid ownerships, like San Antonio FC – NYCFC). This removes all MLS2 teams but will not affect Colorado Springs, Reno, RGVFC and San Antonio.
- The USL will attempt to maintain both the USL Championship and USL League One, with an eventual mind toward creating the pro/rel paradise that is promised in Relegations 3:16.
- All of my research regarding facility size and ownership net worth is correct – this is probably the biggest leap of faith we have to make, since googling “NAME net worth” and “CITY richest people” doesn’t seem guaranteed to return accurate results.
- The most a club can increase its available seating capacity to meet D1 requirements in a current stadium is no more than 1,500 seats (10% of the required 15,000). If they need to add more, they’ll need a new facility.
- Let’s pretend that people are VERY willing to sell. It’s commonly acknowledged that the USL is a more financially feasible route to owning a soccer club than in MLS (c.f. MLS-Charlotte’s reported $325 million expansion fee) and the USSF has some very strict requirements for D1 sanctioning. It becomes pretty apparent when googling a lot of team’s owners that this requirement isn’t met, so let’s assume everyone that can’t sells to people who meet the requirements.
(Known) USSF D1 league requirements: - League must have 12 teams to apply and 14 teams by year three
- Majority owner must have a net worth of $40 million, and the ownership group must have a total net worth of $70 million. The value of an owned stadium is not considered when calculating this value.
- Must have teams located in the Eastern, Central and Pacific time zones
- 75% of league’s teams must be based in markets with at a metro population of at least 1 million people.
- All league stadiums must have a capacity of at least 15,000
The ideal club candidate for the USL Premiership will meet the population and capacity requirements in its current ground, which will have a grass playing surface. Of the USL Championship’s 27 independent/hybrid affiliate clubs, I did not find one club that meets all these criteria as they currently stand.
Regarding turf fields, the USSF does not have a formal policy regarding the ideal playing surface but it is generally acknowledged that grass is superior to turf. 6 of 26 MLS stadiums utilize turf, or roughly 23% of stadiums. We’ll hold a similar restriction for our top flight, so 2-3 of our top flight clubs can have turf fields. Seem fair?
Capacity is going to be the biggest issue, since the disparity between current requirements for the second-tier (5,000) and the first tier (15,000) is a pretty massive gap. Nice club you have there, triple your capacity and you’re onto something. As a result, I have taken the liberty of relocating certain (read: nearly all) clubs to new grounds, trying my utmost to keep those clubs in their current markets and –importantly--, ensure they play on grass surfaces.
So, let’s do a case-by-case evaluation and see if we can put together 12-14 teams that meet the potential requirements, because what else do you have to do?
For each club’s breakdown, anything that represents a chance from what is currently true will be underlined.
Candidate: Birmingham Legion FC Location (Metro population): Birmingham, Ala. (1,151,801)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Legion Field (FieldTurf, 71,594)
Potential owner: Stephens Family (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Birmingham has a pretty strong candidacy. Having ditched the 5,000-seater BBVA Field for Legion Field, which sits 2.4 miles away, they’ve tapped into the city’s soccer history. Legion Field hosted portions of both the men’s and women’s tournaments at the 1996 Olympics, including a 3-1 U.S. loss to Argentina that saw 83,183 pack the house. The Harbert family seemed like strong ownership contenders, but since the death of matriarch Marguerite Harbert in 2015, it’s unclear where the wealth in the family is concentrated, so the Stephens seem like a better candidate. The only real knock that I can think of is that we really want to avoid having clubs play on turf, so I’d say they’re on the bubble of our platonic ideal USL Prem.
Candidate: Charleston Battery Location (Metro population): Charleston, S.C. (713,000)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Johnson Hagood Stadium (Grass, ~14,700)
Potential owner: Anita Zucker (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Charleston’s candidacy isn’t looking great. Already disadvantaged due to its undersized metro population, a move across the Cooper River to Johnson Hagood Stadium is cutting it close in terms of capacity. The stadium, home to The Citadel’s football team, used to seat 21,000, before 9,300 seats on the eastern grandstand were torn down in 2017 to deal with lead paint that had been used in their construction. Renovation plans include adding 3,000 seats back in, which could hit 15,000 if they bumped it to 3,300, but throw in a required sale by HCFC, LLC (led by content-creation platform founder Rob Salvatore) to chemical magnate Anita Zucker, and you’ll see there’s a lot of ifs and ands in this proposal.
Candidate: Charlotte Independence Location (Metro population): Charlotte, N.C. (2,569, 213)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Jerry Richardson Stadium (Turf, 15,314)
Potential owner: James Goodnight (reported net worth $9.1 billion)
Notes: Charlotte ticks a lot of the boxes. A move from the Sportsplex at Matthews to UNC-Charlotte’s Jerry Richardson stadium meets capacity requirements, but puts them on to the dreaded turf. Regrettably, nearby American Legion Memorial Stadium only seats 10,500, despite a grass playing surface. With a sizeable metro population (sixth-largest in the USL Championship) and a possible owner in software billionaire James Goodnight, you’ve got some options here. The biggest problem likely lies in direct competition for market share against a much better-funded MLS Charlotte side due to join the league in 2021.
Candidate: Hartford Athletic Location (Metro population): Hartford, Conn. (1,214,295)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Pratt & Whitney Stadium (Grass, 38,066)
Potential owner: Ray Dalio (reported net worth $18.4 billion)
Notes: Okay, I cheated a bit here, having to relocate Hartford to Pratt & Whitney Stadium, which is technically in East Hartford, Conn. I don’t know enough about the area to know if there’s some kind of massive beef between the two cities, but the club has history there, having played seven games in 2019 while Dillon Stadium underwent renovations. If the group of local businessmen that currently own the club manage to attract Dalio to the table, we’re on to something.
Candidate: Indy Eleven Location (Metro population): Indianapolis, Ind. (2,048,703)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lucas Oil Stadium (Turf, 62,421)
Potential owner: Jim Irsay (reported net worth of $3 billion)
Notes: Indy Eleven are a club that are SO CLOSE to being an ideal candidate – if it weren’t for Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf playing surface. Still, there’s a lot to like in this bid. I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what current owner and founder Ersal Ozdemir is worth,
but it seems like there might be cause for concern. A sale to Irsay, who also owns the NFL Indianapolis (nee Baltimore) Colts, seems likely to keep the franchise there, rather than make a half-mile move to 14,230 capacity Victory Field where the AAA Indianapolis Indians play and expand from there.
Candidate: Louisville City FC Location (Metro population): Louisville, Ky. (1,297,310)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lynn Family Stadium (Grass, 14,000, possibly expandable to 20,000)
Potential owner: Wayne Hughes (reported net worth $2.8 billion)
Notes: I’m stretching things a bit here. Lynn Family stadium is currently listed as having 11,700 capacity that’s expandable to 14,000, but they’ve said that the ground could hold as many as 20,000 with additional construction, which might be enough to grant them a temporary waiver from USSF. If the stadium is a no-go, then there’s always Cardinal Stadium, home to the University of Louisville’s football team, which seats 65,000 but is turf. Either way, it seems like a sale to someone like Public Storage founder Wayne Hughes will be necessary to ensure the club has enough capital.
Candidate: Memphis 901 FC Location (Metro population): Memphis, Tenn. (1,348,260)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Liberty Bowl Stadium (Turf, 58,325)
Potential owner: Fred Smith (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Unfortunately for Memphis, AutoZone Park’s 10,000 seats won’t cut it at the D1 level. With its urban location, it would likely prove tough to renovate, as well. Liberty Bowl Stadium more than meets the need, but will involve the use of the dreaded turf. As far as an owner goes, FedEx founder Fred Smith seems like a good local option.
Candidate: Miami FC, “The” Location (Metro population): Miami, Fla. (6,158,824)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Riccardo Silva Stadium (FieldTurf, 20,000)
Potential owner: Riccardo Silva (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: Well, well, well, Silva might get his wish for top-flight soccer, after all. He’s got the money, he’s got the metro, and his ground has the capacity. There is the nagging issue of the turf, though. Hard Rock Stadium might present a solution, including a capacity of 64,767 and a grass playing surface. It is worth noting, however, that this is the first profile where I didn’t have to find a new potential owner for a club.
Candidate: North Carolina FC Location (Metro population): Durham, N.C. (1,214,516 in The Triangle)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Carter-Finley Stadium (Grass/Turf, 57,583)
Potential owner: Steve Malik (precise net worth unknown) / Dennis Gillings (reported net worth of $1.7 billion)
Notes: We have our first “relocation” in North Carolina FC, who were forced to trade Cary’s 10,000-seat WakeMed Soccer Park for Carter-Finley Stadium in Durham, home of the NC State Wolfpack and 57,583 of their closest friends. The move is a whopping 3.1 miles, thanks to the close-knit hub that exists between Cary, Durham and Raleigh. Carter-Finley might be my favorite of the stadium moves in this exercise. The field is grass, but the sidelines are artificial turf. Weird, right? Either way, it was good enough for Juventus to play a friendly against Chivas de Guadalajara there in 2011. Maybe the move would be pushed for by new owner and medical magnate Dennis Gillings, whose British roots might inspire him to get involved in the Beautiful Game. Straight up, though, I couldn’t find a net worth for current owner Steve Malik, though he did sell his company MedFusion for $91 million in 2010, then bought it back for an undisclosed amount and sold it again for $43 million last November. I don’t know if Malik has the juice to meet D1 requirements, but I suspect he’s close.
Candidate: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Location (Metro population): Pittsburgh, Penn. (2,362,453)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Heinz Field (Grass, 64,450)
Potential owner: Henry Hillman (reported net worth $2.5 billion)
Notes: I don’t know a ton about the Riverhounds, but this move in particular feels like depriving a pretty blue-collar club from its roots. Highmark Stadium is a no-go from a seating perspective, but the Steelers’ home stadium at Heinz Field would more than meet the requirements and have a grass surface that was large enough to be sanctioned for a FIFA friendly between the U.S. WNT and Costa Rica in 2015. As for an owner, Tuffy Shallenberger (first ballot owner name HOF) doesn’t seem to fit the USSF bill, but legendary Pittsburgh industrialist Henry Hillman might. I’m sure you’re asking, why not the Rooney Family, if they’ll play at Heinz Field? I’ll tell you: I honestly can’t seem to pin down a value for the family. The Steelers are valued at a little over a billion and rumors persist that Dan Rooney is worth $500 million, but I’m not sure. I guess the Rooneys would work too, but it’s a definite departure from an owner in Shallenberger who was described by one journalist as a guy who “wears boots, jeans, a sweater and a trucker hat.”
Candidate: Saint Louis FC Location (Metro population): St. Louis, Mo. (2,807,338)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Busch Stadium (Grass, 45,494)
Potential owner: William DeWitt Jr. (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Saint Louis has some weirdness in making the jump to D1. Current CEO Jim Kavanaugh is an owner of the MLS side that will begin play in 2022. The club’s current ground at West Community Stadium isn’t big enough, but perhaps a timely sale to Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. could see the club playing games at Busch Stadium, which has a well established history of hosting other sports like hockey, college football and soccer (most recently a U.S. WNT friendly against New Zealand in 2019). The competition with another MLS franchise wouldn’t be ideal, like Charlotte, but with a big enough population and cross marketing from the Cardinals, maybe there’s a winner here.
Wacko idea: If Busch doesn’t pan out, send them to The Dome. Sure, it’s a 60k turf closed-in stadium, but we can go for that retro NASL feel and pay homage to our nation’s soccer history.
Candidate: Tampa Bay Rowdies Location (Metro population): Tampa, Fla. (3,068,511)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Raymond James Stadium (Grass, 65,518)
Potential owner: Edward DeBartolo Jr. (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: This one makes me sad. Despite having never been there, I see Al Lang Stadium as an iconic part of the Rowdies experience. Current owner Bill Edwards proposed an expansion to 18,000 seats in 2016, but the move seems to have stalled out. Frustrated with the city’s lack of action, Edwards sells to one-time San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr., who uses his old NFL connections to secure a cushy lease at the home of the Buccaneers in Ray Jay, the site of a 3-1 thrashing of Antigua and Barbuda during the United States’ 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign.
Breather. Hey, we finished the Eastern Conference teams. Why are you still reading this? Why am I still writing it? Time is a meaningless construct in 2020 my friends, we are adrift in the void, fueled only by brief flashes of what once was and what may yet still be. Candidate: Austin Bold FC Location (Metro population): Austin, Texas (2,168,316)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 95,594)
Potential owner: Michael Dell (reported net worth of $32.3 billion)
Notes: Anthony Precourt’s Austin FC has some unexpected competition and it comes in the form of tech magnate Michael Dell. Dell, were he to buy the club, would be one of the richest owners on our list and could flash his cash in the new first division. Would he have enough to convince Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (I’m not kidding, that’s its actual name) to go back to a grass surface, like it did from ’96-’08? That’s between Dell and nearly 100,000 UT football fans, but everything can be had for the right price.
Candidate: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Location (Metro population): Colorado Springs, Colo. (738,939)
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Falcon Stadium (FieldTurf, 46,692)
Potential owner: Charles Ergen (reported net worth $10.8 billion)
Notes: Welcome to Colorado Springs. We have hurdles. For the first time in 12 candidates, we’re back below the desired 1 million metro population mark. Colorado Springs actually plans to build a $35 million, 8,000 seat venue downtown that will be perfect for soccer, but in our timeline that’s 7,000 seats short. Enter Falcon Stadium, home of the Air Force Academy Falcons football team. Seems perfect except for the turf, right? Well, the tricky thing is that Falcon Stadium is technically on an active military base and is (I believe) government property. Challenges to getting in and out of the ground aside, the military tends to have a pretty grim view of government property being used by for-profit enterprises. Maybe Charles Ergen, founder and chairman of Dish Network, would be able to grease the right wheels, but you can go ahead and throw this into the “doubtful” category. It’s a shame, too. 6,035 feet of elevation is one hell of a home-field advantage.
Candidate: El Paso Locomotive FC Location: El Paso, Texas
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Sun Bowl (FieldTurf, 51,500)
Potential owner: Paul Foster (reported net worth $1.7 billion)
Notes: God bless Texas. When compiling this list, I found so many of the theoretical stadium replacements were nearly serviceable by high school football fields. That’s insane, right? Anyway, Locomotive don’t have to settle for one of those, they’ve got the Sun Bowl, which had its capacity reduced in 2001 to a paltry 51,500 (from 52,000) specifically to accommodate soccer. Sure, it’s a turf surface, but what does new owner Paul Foster (who is only the 1,477th wealthiest man in the world, per Forbes) care, he’s got a team in a top league.
Side note: Did you know that the Sun Bowl college football game is officially, through sponsorship, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl? Why is it not the Frosted Flakes Sun Bowl? Why is the cereal mascot the promotional name of the football game? What are you doing, Kellogg’s?
Candidate: Las Vegas Lights FC Location: Las Vegas, Nev. (2,227,053)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Allegiant Stadium (Grass, 61,000)
Potential owner: Sheldon Adelson (reported net worth $37.7 billion)
Notes: Sin City. You had to know that the club that once signed Freddy Adu because “why not” was going to go all out in our flashy hypothetical proposal. Thanks to my narrative control of this whole thing, they have. Adelson is the second-richest owner in the league and has decided to do everything first class. That includes using the new Raiders stadium in nearby unincorporated Paradise, Nevada, and spending boatloads on high profile transfers. Zlatan is coming back to the U.S., confirmed.
Candidate: New Mexico United Location: Albuquerque, N.M.
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Isotopes Park – officially Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Grass, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Maloof Family (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: New Mexico from its inception went deep on the community vibe, and I’ve tried to replicate that in this bid. The home field of Rio Grande Cr---I’m not typing out the whole thing—Isotopes Park falls just within the expansion rules we set to make it to 15,000 (weird, right?) and they’ve found a great local ownership group in the Lebanese-American Maloof (formerly Maalouf) family from Las Vegas. The only thing to worry about would be the metro population, but overall, this could be one of the gems of USL Prem.
Candidate: Oklahoma City Energy FC Location: Oklahoma City, Okla. (1,396,445)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (Grass, 13,066)
Potential owner: Harold Hamm (reported net worth $14.2 billion)
Notes: There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow and it says it’s time to change stadiums and owners to make it to D1. A sale to oil magnate Harold Hamm would give the club the finances it needs, but Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (home of the OKC Dodgers) actually falls outside of the boundary of what would meet capacity if 1,500 seats were added. Could the club pull off a move to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma – home of the Oklahoma Sooners? Maybe, but at 20 miles, this would be a reach.
Candidate: Orange County SC Location: Irvine, Calif. (3,176, 000 in Orange County)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Angels Stadium of Anaheim (Grass, 43,250)
Potential owner: Arte Moreno (reported net worth $3.3 billion)
Notes: You’ll never convince me that Rangers didn’t choose to partner with Orange County based primarily on its name. Either way, a sale to MLB Angels owner Arte Moreno produces a fruitful partnership, with the owner choosing to play his newest club out of the existing Angels stadium in OC. Another baseball conversion, sure, but with a metro population of over 3 million and the closest thing this hypothetical league has to an LA market, who’s complaining?
Candidate: Phoenix Rising FC Location: Phoenix, Ariz. (4,857,962)
Time zone: Arizona
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): State Farm Stadium (Grass, 63,400)
Potential owner: Ernest Garcia II (reported net worth $5.7 billion)
Notes: We’re keeping it local with new owner and used car guru Ernest Garcia II. His dad owned a liquor store and he dropped out of college, which is making me feel amazing about my life choices right now. Casino Arizona Field is great, but State Farm Stadium is a grass surface that hosted the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal, so it’s a clear winner. Throw in Phoenix’s massive metro population and this one looks like a lock.
Candidate: Reno 1868 FC Location: Reno, Nev. (425,417)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: Nancy Walton Laurie (reported net worth $7.1 billion)
Notes: The Biggest Little City on Earth has some serious barriers to overcome, thanks to its low metro population. A sale to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie and 1.6 mile-move to Mackay Stadium to split space with the University of Nevada, Reno makes this bid competitive, but the turf surface is another knock against it.
Candidate: Rio Grande Valley FC Location: Edinburg, Texas (900,304)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): McAllen Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Alice Louise Walton (reported net worth $45 billion)
Notes: Yes, I have a second straight Walmart heiress on the list. She was the first thing that popped up when I googled “McAllen Texas richest people.” The family rivalry has spurred Walton to buy a club as well, moving them 10 miles to McAllen Memorial Stadium which, as I alluded to earlier, is a straight up high school football stadium with a full color scoreboard. Toss in an additional 1,500 seats and you’ve met the minimum, despite the turf playing surface.
Candidate: San Antonio FC Location: San Antonio, Texas (2,550,960)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Alamodome (FieldTurf, 64,000)
Potential owner: Red McCombs (reported net worth $1.6 billion)
Notes: I wanted to keep SAFC in the Spurs family, since the franchise is valued at $1.8 billion. That said, I didn’t let the Rooneys own the Riverhounds based on the Steelers’ value and it felt wrong to change the rules, so bring on Clear Channel co-founder Red McCombs. Toyota Field isn’t viable in the first division, but for the Alamodome, which was built in 1993 in hopes of attracting an NFL franchise (and never did), San Antonio can finally claim having *a* national football league team in its town (contingent on your definition of football). Now if only we could do something about that turf…
Candidate: San Diego Loyal SC Location: San Diego, Calif. (3,317,749)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) (Grass, 70,561)
Potential owner: Phil Mickelson (reported net worth $91 million)
Notes: Yes, golf’s Phil Mickelson. The existing ownership group didn’t seem to have the wherewithal to meet requirements, and Phil seemed to slot right in. As an athlete himself, he might be interesting in the new challenges of a top flight soccer team. Toss in a move to the former home of the chargers and you might have a basis for tremendous community support.
Candidate: FC Tulsa Location: Tulsa, Okla. (991,561)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: George Kaiser ($10 billion)
Notes: I’m a fan of FC Tulsa’s rebrand, but if they want to make the first division, more changes are necessary. A sale to Tulsa native and one of the 100 richest men in the world George Kaiser means that funding is guaranteed. A move to Chapman Stadium would provide the necessary seats, despite the turf field. While the undersize population might be an issue at first glance, it’s hard to imagine U.S. Soccer not granting a waiver over a less than a 10k miss from the mark.
And that’s it! You made it. Those are all of the independent/hybrid affiliates in the USL Championship, which means that it’s time for our…
VERDICT: As an expert who has studied this issue for almost an entire day now, I am prepared to pronounce which USL Championships could be most ‘ready” for a jump to the USL Prem. A reminder that of the 27 clubs surveyed, 0 of them met our ideal criteria (proper ownership $, metro population, 15,000+ stadium with grass field).
Two of them, however, met almost all of those criteria: Indy Eleven and Miami FC. Those two clubs may use up two of our three available turf fields right from the outset, but the other factors they hit (particularly Silva’s ownership of Miami) makes them difficult, if not impossible to ignore for the top flight.
But who fill in the rest of the slots? Meet the entire 14-team USL Premier League:
Hartford Athletic Indy Eleven Louisville City FC Miami FC North Carolina FC Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Tampa Bay Rowdies Saint Louis FC San Antonio FC New Mexico United Phoenix Rising FC Las Vegas Lights FC Orange County SC San Diego Loyal SC Now, I shall provide my expert rationale for each club’s inclusion/exclusion, which can be roughly broken down into four categories.
Firm “yes” Hartford Athletic: It’s a good market size with a solid stadium. With a decent investor and good community support, you’ve got potential here.
Indy Eleven: The turf at Lucas Oil Stadium is no reason to turn down a 62,421 venue and a metro population of over 2 million.
Louisville City FC: Why doesn’t the 2017 & 2018 USL Cup champion deserve a crack at the top flight? They have the market size, and with a bit of expansion have the stadium at their own SSS. LCFC, you’re in.
Miami FC, “The”: Our other blue-chip recruit on the basis of ownership value, market size and stadium capacity. Yes, that field is turf, but how could you snub Silva’s chance to claim victory as the first division 1 club soccer team to play in Miami?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Pittsburgh sacrificed a lot to be here (according to my arbitrary calculations). Their market size and the potential boon of soccer at Heinz Field is an important inclusion to the league.
Saint Louis FC: Willie hears your “Busch League” jokes, Willie don’t care. A huge market size, combined with the absence of an NFL franchise creates opportunity. Competition with the MLS side, sure, but St. Louis has serious soccer history and we’re willing to bet it can support two clubs.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: With a huge population and a massive stadium waiting nearby, Tampa Bay seems like too good of an opportunity to pass up for the USL Prem.
Las Vegas Lights FC: Ostentatious, massive and well-financed, Las Vegas Lights FC is everything that the USL Premier League would need to assert that it didn’t intend to play second fiddle to MLS. Players will need to be kept on a short leash, but this is a hard market to pass up on.
Phoenix Rising FC: Huge population, big grass field available nearby and a solid history of success in recent years. No brainer.
San Diego Loyal SC: New club? Yes, massive population in a market that recently lost an absolutely huge sports presence? Also yes. This could be the USL Prem’s Seattle.
Cautious “yes” New Mexico United: You have to take a chance on New Mexico United. The club set the league on fire with its social media presence and its weight in the community when it entered the league last season. The market may be slightly under USSF’s desired 1 million, but fervent support (and the ability to continue to use Isotopes Park) shouldn’t be discounted.
North Carolina FC: Carter-Finley’s mixed grass/turf surface is a barrier, to be sure, but the 57,000+ seats it offers (and being enough to offset other fully-turf offerings) is enough to put it in the black.
Orange County SC: It’s a top-tier club playing in a MLB stadium. I know it seems
unlikely that USSF would approve something like that, but believe me when I say
“it could happen.” Orange County is a massive market and California likely needs two clubs in the top flight.
San Antonio FC: Our third and only voluntary inclusion to the turf fields in the first division, we’re counting on San Antonio’s size and massive potential stadium to see it through.
Cautious “no” Birmingham Legion FC: The town has solid soccer history and a huge potential venue, but the turf playing surface puts it on the outside looking in.
Memphis 901 FC: Like Birmingham, not much to dislike here outside of the turf playing surface at the larger playing venue.
Austin Bold FC: See the other two above.
FC Tulsa: Everything’s just a little bit off with this one. Market’s slightly too small, stadium has turf. Just not enough to put it over the top.
Firm “no” Charleston Battery: Small metro and a small potential new stadium? It’s tough to say yes to the risk.
Charlotte Independence: A small new stadium and the possibility of having to compete with an organization that just paid over $300 million to join MLS means it’s best for this club to remain in the USL Championship.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: When a club’s best chance to meet a capacity requirement is to host games at a venue controlled by the military, that doesn’t speak well to a club’s chances.
El Paso Locomotive FC: An undersized market and a turf field that meets capacity requirements is the death knell for this one.
Oklahoma City Energy FC: Having to expand a baseball field to meet requirements is a bad start. Having to potentially play 20 miles away from your main market is even worse.
Reno 1868 FC: Population nearly a half-million short of the federation’s requirements AND a turf field at the hypothetical new stadium makes impossible to say yes to this bid.
Rio Grande Valley FC: All the seat expansions in the world can’t hide the fact that McAllen Memorial Stadium is a high school stadium through and through.
Here’s who’s left in the 11-team Championship:
Birmingham Legion FC Charleston Battery Charlotte Independence Memphis 901 FC Austin Bold FC Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC El Paso Locomotive FC Oklahoma City Energy FC Reno 1868 FC Rio Grande Valley FC FC Tulsa With MLS folding the six affiliates it has in USL League One, the league is a little bit thin (especially considering USSF’s requirements for 8 teams for lower level leagues), but seems definitely able to expand up to the necessary numbers with Edwards’ allusions to five new additions this year:
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC Forward Madison FC Greenville Triumph SC Union Omaha Richmond Kickers South Georgia Tormenta FC Tucson Format of Assorted Leagues – This (like everything in this post) is pure conjecture on my part, but here are my thoughts on how these leagues might function in a first year while waiting for additional expansion.
USL Premier – We’ll steal from the 12-team Scottish Premiership. Each club plays the other 11 clubs 3 times, with either one or two home matches against each side. When each club has played 33 matches, the top six and bottom six separate, with every club playing an additional five matches (against each other team in its group). The top club wins the league. The bottom club is automatically relegated. The second-bottom club will enter a two-legged playoff against someone (see below) from the championship playoffs.
USL Championship -- 11 clubs is a challenge to schedule for. How about every club plays everyone else three times (either one or two home matches against each side)? Top four clubs make the playoffs, which are decided by two-legged playoffs. The winner automatically goes up. I need feedback on the second part – is it better to have the runner-up from the playoffs face the second-bottom club from the Premiership, or should the winner of the third-place match-up get the chance to face them to keep drama going in both playoff series? As for relegation, we can clearly only send down the last place club while the third division is so small.
USL League One – While the league is so small, it doesn’t seem reasonable to have the clubs play as many matches as the higher divisions. Each club could play the other six clubs four times – twice at home and twice away – for a very equitable 24-match regular season, which would help restrict costs and still provide a chance to determine a clear winner. Whoever finishes top of the table goes up.
And there you have it, a hypothetical look at how the USL could build a D1 league right now. All it would take is a new stadium for almost the entire league and new owners for all but one of the 27 clubs, who wouldn’t feel that their property would be massively devalued if they got relegated.
Well that’s our show. I’m curious to see what you think of all of this, especially anything that you think I may have overlooked (I’m sure there’s plenty). Anyway, I hope you’re all staying safe and well.
submitted by I would like to just point out this is just my opinion using the facts I was giving. I figured that finding Francis' location in Alabama was the easiest. I concluded that Francis most likely was in Birmingham, AL because he was five hours away from New Orleans for the episode where he went to Mardi Gras with his friends (S2E15 Grandparents: 3:32). From there I looked for what places where 5,000 mi away from Alaska because Malcolm said their house was 5,000 miles away from Alaska (S3E2 Emancipation: 11:10). Since Alaska is a huge state I concluded that he was most likely in Anchorage, AK because Francis said they would get cruise ships (that is farthest north cruises go) and the rest of the state is not that accessible. Also it was in wooded area which Anchorage has. Most people say that it's in California or even Texas but those are only 3,000 miles away. I figured the state had to be south because it doesn't snow often (S6E3 Standee: 2:00). Also their lockers were outside in high school which is more common in hotter states (S4E4 Stupid Girl: 2:20). From their I tried South Carolina which still was too short so I tried Orlando, Fl which ended up being 4,753 miles which is almost 5,000 miles. To make sure that was accurate I saw how long it would take from Orlando to Birmingham which was a little over eight hours which fit with what Hal said it took to drive to Francis after Hal lied to Commandant Spangler (S2E12 Krelboyne Girl: 16:14). So in conclusion I believe they live somewhere in Flordia near Orlando, possibly. This fits with being able to visit Lois' half sister in Manitoba Canada (they say 21 hrs but it is about 29 so it's little off but it works better than other ideas) (S5E20 Victor's Other Family: 2:30) and when they go to an Indian Casino (S2E5 Casino) which could be in Arkansas, Oklahoma or Texas. The only true thing that doesn't go with my prediction is that Malcolm goes to Harvard which he stated is 2,000 miles away, it's 1,281 miles, which is more consistent with Texas (but that doesn't go with the other information) (S7E22 Graduation: 1:15). Since this is more of an outlier than other given information I concluded it was a random number (as most of these could be). Of course everything depends on where in Alaska Francis was which was more of a prediction of mine (even though it fit with the cruises) as well as the Canada thing. Though some things are inconsistent, this is the most reasonable conclusion. As I would like to say again this is only my opinion with the facts that were given to me.
submitted by Roger Goodell is always talking about growing revenues and sometimes expanding the league. It seems likely that Los Angeles will eventually get a team again, but what about cities that have never had an NFL team? What city will be the next to host their first home team?
City: San Antonio, TX Population: 1,382,951 Other Pro/Major College Teams: San Antonio Spurs (NBA) Pros: Located in football-crazy Texas, San Antonio is by far the biggest city outside of Los Angeles to not have an NFL team. San Antonio is growing rapidly. And while a San Antonio team would be the third Texas NFL team, the geography works- they're more than 2.5 hours from Houston and 4 hours from Dallas. But what's most attractive is that it would be easy to plug in an NFL team without much investment, due to the construction of the 65,000 seat (up to 72,000) Alamodome in the early 90's. It hosts the annual Alamo Bowl and other events such as CFL and college games. At 65,000, it would be the 6th smallest stadium, tied with Ford Field and just a little more than the University of Phoenix Stadium. Expanded to 72,000, it lands between Atlanta's Georgia Dome and Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium. It would be newer than 9 currently in-use NFL stadiums. As the NFL seeks to internationalize itself, having a team this close to the Mexican border may also prove to be an attractive prospect to draw in Mexican audiences. Cons: The Cowboys and Texans may not want to share their Texas pie with another major franchise, even one far away from most of them. And while large, San Antonio is not a high-profile city. While the Spurs are popular, there isn't much in the way of major sports to know if a team would succeed in the town, and if they could pull enough dollars from Texans, Cowboys, and Longhorn fans. Likelihood: This seems to be the most likely place. An untapped population, international reach, and a ready-made stadium could make this a highly attractive spot for an owner looking to make a move with minimal investment (i.e. not having to build a new stadium, or get a local government to build one).
City: San Jose, CA Population: 982,765 Other Pro/Major College Teams: Sharks (NHL) Pros: San Jose is hip place in the heart of Silicon Valley, with beautiful weather and a lot of money. Cons: The 49ers just moved their stadium to Santa Clara, just bordering San Jose. If anything, they are more San Jose than San Francisco. With the Raiders in nearby Oakland, it would concentrate a lot of NFL firepower in one small footprint. Likelihood: Very low. The league would likelu not allow a team there with the 49ers on their doorstep. While a market can support two teams if large enough (Jets/Giants, 49ers/Raiders) adding a third would be too deletrious to those in place.
City: Columbus, OH Population: 809,798 Other Pro/Major College Teams: Blue Jackets (NHL), Ohio State Buckeyes (NCAA) Pros: Ohio is up there with Texas with states that take their football seriously. Columbus is the largest city and capital in Ohio, and is already the home of very avid football fans for the Buckeyes. I'm not sure of the politics would make this possible, but if OSU allowed the Columbus NFL team to use Ohio Stadium, it would be the second largest (only behind Cowboys Stadium) with a max attendance of 102,329. Cons: It would be the third NFL team in Ohio, next to the Bengals and Browns. Both of those teams have been historically not great, and along with the continued poor showing of the Blue Jackets and difficulty of succeeding in the NFL may make Ohio sports teams weary. Likelihood: Unlikely. The Buckeyes own Columbus, and the other two owners in Ohio (and nearby Pittsburgh) would probably not want to share their turf with a new team. Unlike Texas, this is an area that has been under some economic hardship and may be difficult to justify another team in the state.
City: Austin, TX Population: 842,592 Other Pro/Major College Teams: University of Texas Longhorns (NCAA) Pros: Like with San Antonio, Texas is enthusiastic about football. Still located a good distance from the current NFL teams in Texas, Austin is a city in the midst of large economic expansion. The University of Texas contributes to a fun, weird atmosphere that would make Austin an attractive destination for visiting fans to come into town. If like Columbus the NFL team was able to lease Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, it would again be the #2 stadium in the NFL wth 100,119. Cons: Like Columbus and their Buckeyes, Austin bleeds burnt orange. UT football is a big deal there, and an NFL team would probably be in competition for these dollars. While there is large support from Texas faithful and the very large student body at UT, it's not clear that there would be the same level of support for an NFL team right there. Asking for 200,000 football tickets to be sold most weekends in the Fall is a daunting prospect for a town of less than a million people. Likelihood: Unlikely. Austin doesn't seem like a city that has much drive to need an NFL team, as their sporting fixes are more than made up by a typically-competitive UT team plus the nearby Cowboys and Texans.
City: Portland, OR Population: 603,106 Other Pro/Major College Teams: Timbers (MLS), Trail Blazers (NBA) Pros: Portland is a growing city that doesn't have a competitive football team nearby. Seattle is 2.5 hours, and the two recently-competitive football teams, Oregon State Beavers and the Oregon Ducks, are 1 to 2 hours away. Portland is larger than many NFL cities and is very underserved by pro sports in general, and Oregon fans have shown a lot of support for their NCAA teams. A sporting culture, including a ready-made partnership with Oregon-based Nike, might make Portland a place to put on the radar if the NFL seeks to expand. Portland and Seattle can continue their rivalry on the gridiron, instead of arguing whose Pride Parade is gayer. Cons: There would have to be a new stadium built, and locals are probably going to put up a fight against any public financing or use of eminent domain to secure a desirable city location. This would mean a stadium probably built out in the suburbs, which can have mixed results. I asked some relatives of mine what they thought about local support, and they were decidedly mixed, thinking that Portland thinks itself too much of itself to allow something as base as professional football to succeed. Likelihood: Not the least but not the most. While there's no real muscle pushing a team to Portland, and Portlandia has biased me to think that locals will protest something as base as football, it might actually be a good place for the NFL to consider expansion to.
City: Toronto, ON Population: 2,615,060 Other Pro/Major College Teams: Blue Jays (MLB), Argonauts (CFL), Raptors (NBA), Maple Leafs (NHL), Toronto FC (MLS) Pros: The Bills already play one game a year in Rogers Centre (though it will always be SkyDome to me) and there are a lot of Canadian fans of NFL football. While the Toronto series has been a debacle for the Bills (usually meaning the opposition has as many fans there as the Bills, giving them effectively one less home game a year), a dedicated NFL team may fare better. With local support, Toronto has the sports culture, population, stadium, and most importantly money (check out Maple Leafs ticket prices!) to support an NFL team. Whether the local support would actually catch is another story. Toronto would also become the third-largest city with an NFL team, coming in just under Chicago's 2.7 million. Cons: For American football, Rogers Centre only seats 54,000. That makes it the third smallest stadium in the NFL, above just Chicago and Minnesota. Crowd noise at the Bills games has been lackluster to say the least, but then again, so have the Bills. They would also be in direct competition with the Toronto Argonauts of the CFL. While the NFL definitely has larger marketing and name power, the Argos do enjoy healthy local support and are one of the oldest sports franchises in the world. Ex-con players might create headaches for visiting teams at the border. Free agents might also be hesitant to make Toronto home, given that it's (really) cold and Canadian taxes are much higher. Likelihood: Very. Goodell wants to make the game international, and Toronto is the prime target. Buffalo seems the most likely team to move there, but it's far from guaranteed. Don't be surprised if Jacksonville sneaks in on this one.
City: Las Vegas, NV Population: 596,424 Other Pro/Major College Teams: None Pros: A completely underserved sports market along with a fairly high population. It probably wouldn't be hard to find a casino magnate with money to burn that could finance an expansion team in the desert. Cons: It's hot. The gambling and party culture might make it a hotbed of player misbehavior, as there's quite a difference between a rookie signing their first million-dollar contract in northern Wisconsin versus a 5-minute drive from The Strip. A new stadium would need to be built, and without any major sports teams nearby, it's difficult to know if an NFL team would be viable. The NFL might also balk at the image of a Vegas team, as inevitably there would be accusations of fixing and bribery for gambling reasons. Likelihood: Unlikely. The NFL is just too risk-averse to invest that kind of money into a place like Vegas.
City: Virginia Beach, VA Population: 449,628 Other Pro/Major College Teams: None Pros: Virginia Beach is one of those invisible large metro areas. Taking in the bordering cities of Chesapeake, Norfolk, and Hampton, the greater area has a metro population of 616,805 just in those towns. Expanding to the larger area and it gets pretty big. It's a wealthy area with a major port and some great tourist areas nearby. It fills a void between the Baltimore/Washington tail of Megalopolis before the Carolina fans pick up. While there is no stadium, there is plenty of room for one, and lots of waterfront that could potentially be converted to a beautiful stadium location. And while the Sacramento Kings deal didn't work out, it showed that local government and ownership groups may be willing to bring a team to this area. Cons: Not a high-profile place. An NBA team, especially one like the Kings, is significantly cheaper than an NFL franchise. The team would have to build a stadium. Likelihood: Could be a dark horse. Virginia has a surprising lack of sports teams, and is even underserved by major college sports. UVa is rarely much more than middling, and sometimes-competitive Virginia Tech is all the way at the western end of the state in Blacksburg. While they probably won't be much of a target for a team looking to move, if the NFL chooses to expand, expect VA Beach to be under consideration.
City: Birmingham, AL Population: 212,038 Other Pro/Major College Teams: None Pros: The southeastern United States is strangely lacking in professional football teams. While the dominant SEC dominates the local sports fans attention, it seems like fertile ground in which to plant an NFL franchise. Birmingham is the largest city in Alabama, and doesn't have a local team in the city. Cons: It is on the smaller side of NFL cities, and it's not a sure thing that the dyed-in-the-wool Alabama football fans will change their spending from the Tigers and the Crimson Tide enough to really allow the team to take root. Likelihood: Very low.
City: London, England Population: 8,308,369 Other Pro/Major College Teams: Like, half the Premier league and a bunch of rugby, cricket, and at least one NFL game a year. Pros: The NFL has been playing games in London for a few years, and fan support has been steady. Wembley Stadium seats over 86,000 for American football. While many Brits seem to find our American game incomprehensible (but somehow find a way to figure out Cricket), there is some fan support for the game. Goodell has publicly expressed an interest in getting a team to London sooner than later, so there is definite management support. Cons: Imagine the 49ers travelling to the London teams, and you're talking about a 20-some-odd hour flight. American free agents will probably often be very hesitant to go to England. The London team's travel times to ANY games, even those "close" games on the US east coast would be a huge disadvantage. Their body clocks would also be completely thrown off, and jet-lag would become a factor. Likelihood: Very, but I believe it will be short-lived. The logistics and other factors of having a European-based team in an American league is just awful, and I think over time that would bear itself out.
City: Omaha, NE Population: 421,570 Other Pro/Major College Teams: None Pros: Omaha is a growing city, and Nebraska's economy is one of the strongest in the nation. While the state of Nebraska lives and dies by their Huskers (located at the University of Nebraska an hour away in Lincoln) Omaha's distinct lack of any major college or pro sports seems to be odd. The Huskers manage to scrape up enough people to fill their 90,000 capacity stadium in a city half the size of Omaha every week, so I think Omaha could very well support a team. The midwest is underserved with pro ball, forcing most Nebraskans to split between the Rams, Chiefs, or Broncos. I work with a few people from Omaha, and they tell me there's too much residual hate of the University of Texas for Cowboys fandom to take root. Omaha has a burgeoning music and art scene, and probably wouldn't be a detriment to free agents. Cons: No ready made stadium, and a lack of too much of a metro area. Knowing how absolutely religiously dedicated Nebraskans can be to their Cornhuskers, I'm not convinced an NFL team can really gain traction. This might be pure college ball territory. Likelihood: Not bad. I think Omaha would be a good location, and could be a great place for an expansion team.
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