2021 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round 4 Writeup 🐢
TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today. Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time. Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets. Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one. In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2. Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case. Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3. Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3. I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow? Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match. Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2. Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2. Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to. Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets. In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2. Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3. Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past. Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time. The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit. Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3. Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent. That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon. Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5. Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now. FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up. Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3. McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3. Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective. I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4. Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round? Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
A compilation of post-inauguration reactions from QAnon group chats
These are excerpts from a few private QAnon group chats that I observe. I originally posted these on the megathread. They're listed roughly in the order the comments were made, immediately following the inauguration ceremony and through the next day. I made significant effort to vet that these comments are not from trolls or bots. You can really see the narrative-building in action throughout these comments. Pt. 1 (1/20 afternoon)
We’re are all the mass arrests? Oh my gosh I’ve wasted so much time in rabbit holes and nothing to show for it but making me look like a complete idiot. I am livid and sad today.
Aren't we supposed to have faith? I have a hard time believing that Sidney Powell and Gulliani have played their reputations on the line and General Flynn knows what comes next if they don't move. But remember, the military is in charge
Can’t believe all that never really listened or believed... pathetic behavior of so called patriots... giving up now means you never believed to begin with.. you hoped.
What if president Trump was part of it.... they tricked us
So I have listen to what was said and how this was a plan to take back our country and Trump would be our President and not Biden. So nothing has happened and Biden is President now. There was talk about the Military would take care of this and nothing is happening. I think that Q was BULLSHIT and hasn't been heard from for months. So we are ALL fucked and we will be labeled as traitors . Good luck with the Q BS
This is where we find the real patriots from the band wagon patriots. Faith. Have faith. hold the line
its not over until its over, waiting on the EBS, who is with me?
I refuse to believe that Trump would walk away and leave us with all these injustices. He knows of all their crimes. I’m sure there has to be some kind of military plan we don’t know about. I’m not gonna say hold the line but I am going to say pray.
Don't you all think this has been a way the ds kept Trump supporters and conservatives suppressed and away from standing up and worse to compile a list of all so called dissenters??
I have not lost hope.. I have followed a for more then 2 years.. will not lose faith.. even if arrests dont happen I will always have faith in the American Patriots in our country :flag_us::flag_us::purple_heart::purple_heart:
I never said I knew the layout for the day I only know the fight isn't over. DJT said the best is yet to come yesterday. I have faith. I am a true patriot. I will never run. I fear no evil.
I have one more ounce of hope. Mike pompeo came on to do his final address on national tv at exactly 1:21 yesterday.
I'm disappointed that codemonkeyz seems to have thrown in the towel and is working on "something" that he's going to try to sell, but i must be crazy....i still have faith! i've lost friendships, my own husband thinks i'm bonkers, so i'm dug in now. God wins, no matter what, so i'll continue to be kooky until it's the end
I have faith but now my husband has lost it threatening to live or just shoot his self
I'm willing to lay my life down for my children and grand children's freedom. But we've been lied to for so long. I can't be the only one answering texts right now from the ones who doubted us to begin with.
they are getting away arrest them now
People the military is in control now. It might take them a couple of months to get all the perps,but it's coming people, it's coming!!!
They are all in cars. Going to detention center?
Well this offically is my last day in the group i have followed this for over 3 years to be slapped in the face with the reality that i am crazy and this was all bullshit.
Look.. is Q a joke on us Patriots ? I think we are all Q.. a family of Q.. whether or not Q was created by Dems.. Q brought us Patriots all together.. helped us to find faith.. showed us we weren't alone.. gave us extended family.. if Dems created Q it backfired on them.. I for one am proud of my "family" :blush::flag_us::purple_heart:
I am not trying to be negative I still have the faith but as far as holding the line I don't know supposedly have Chinese military men sitting on the border of Canada and the United States and Mexico and the United States just waiting for buying to take office to infiltrate our country makes no sense to me I just never dreamed in a million years that all these people that we followed and believed would desert us the way they have no no nothing no communication what are we supposed to do let China come in and take a take over our country commonly in Harris's already said that we need to take our they need to take our children from us and re-educate them in camps why has FEMA set up camps
Really??? Being a Patriot and believing in Trump. But being lied to by Q, watching your election stolen, all 3 branches lost. They will undo everything we fought for and we can't stop them. So if I am PO'd with others we are allowed to vent and yell if we must.
This movie sucked. I want my money back. Im afraid to watch the credits
Just like a death, it will take time to recover. I knew our politics was LOST. I put so much hope in this Q stuff. Now it has let me down. Sorry if I feel hopeless unless we go to war
When things fall in place and happens like we were told.. how many that are calling it quits, bashing the information you were given... will be claiming that you knew it would happen all along? Can kind of understand how Jesus must of felt on the cross and just a very few were left there still believing....
Where's Q, E, Flynn, Juan O seven, Charlie Ward, Simon Parkes, Sydney Powell, Lynn Woods, Pompeo, Trump, Mike Lidell, Rudy? Anybody making statements on 4 years of playing dungeons and dragons???
Let's wait in 3 days and see what happens. Jesus rose again in three days.
This is how i feel. . . If Things were not to go as planned (trust the plan) Trump or Pompeo or Gen Flynn, or SOMEONE like them, would say to the MILLIONS of us "ok guys, stop the nonsense, it's over" BUT, they have not. They have continued to say, "it is not over" so I still have faith in the plan.
I was bothered by the fact that the video of DJ and Melania getting off the plane was shot blurry and from so far away. Also they were wearing masks which I thought was strange.
You guys have become like an AA group or something for me. My family won't speak to me, my friends now think I'm nuts. The media is calling us terrorists....Jesus, let's see some resolution before it gets irreparable.
My internet keeps glitching, and every time I get excited thinking its transitioning to the EBS
Pt.2 1/20 evening
I just dumped genhyten channel.... EBS. ... then... "remember something might go wrong".... then 45 min.... Ummmm.... ain't buying it.... something might go wrong.. yeah.. .I bet it does and no EBS coming.
What about the fact they swore in the fake joe Biden. I thought the other one with the bum chin would show up to get sworn in. I always figured this dumber joe was just to take a bullet.
Military took control once Biden went through the act of swearing in. Once the constitution was violated by participating and accepting a fraudulent election, the military took over the reigns without needing to do it with a coup.
I have nothing to watch on TV anymore. I can't watch the news. They lie. I cant watch sitcoms and movies because I know the lies and satanism of Hollywood. I can't watch Baseball because they support BLM and the false narrative. NO NFL period. Alot is changing for me.
Trump has said so many encouraging things just in the last couple of days, short of telling us exactly when he will be back.
Nothing Biden does to revoke any orders, to put any new laws in place... none of it will be legal. That’s why the military had their backs facing as he drove by. That’s why he didn’t have the presidential plane pick him up. They know it’s not legit.
Exactly! That inauguration was just sad...fake happy KH is the only one who looked like she was ready to party..
I have heard something about Trump being officially our president again March 4, because it takes 30-45 days I’ve heard this in a few places over the last month or two.
He had to step aside so the Military can take over. Otherwise, he would he accused of using the military to stage a coup
I found out with the oath, he actually didn't say it all. He skipped most of the oath and was sworn in at least 10 minutes before the inauguration was supposed to happen, meaning Trump was still president!!
wouldnt it be funny if we keep waiting for the next milestone and voila, its 2024 that would suck
I have to admit, I don’t understand what people mean when they say we are watching a movie.
I did not let my kids go to school today(even though its only virtual only since they are closed for covid) bc I just knew they were going to teach them about it today after yesterday in my daughters 2nd grade class they made her watch their acceptance speech. So they learned from me today. Its so horrible we are having to protect our kids from school!!
I can wait till jan 27th at 306 pm (second marker) can you. I have hope in all this .
So does the corporation dissolve at midnight?
Going down tomorrow to unregister to vote. Doesn't "F"ing matter anymore they've made that perfectly clear. Q was a psyop the whole time...
Hey all you left over Q nut jobs...where were all of these mass arrests at today? Where were the Marshals Service out making all these arrests of the Clinton’s and Obama and others? Where is the martial law that was supposed to have kicked in with the 20,000 National Guard troops at the inauguration? You delusional fucks have been preaching that shit for the last 6 months. So what happened??? Could it be that “Q” was actually wrong? Or could it be that you are all just bat shit crazy?
Okay, well, I'm guessing that you haven't figured out that the real "Q" isn't online. In fact, the real "Q" is Military Intelligence and is never online. I'm guessing you also haven't figured out that Social Media sites like this one are full of leftist shills posing as Trump supporters. Their task: to make us look as stupid and crazy as they can in order to discredit us so that we can be more easily demonized. It's a tactic straight out of the leftist handbook. Anyway, now you know.
I have a feeling this is not over yet. Something in my gut.... I'm holding onto the hopes that the military is going to let the new administration run amok until the March 4th real inauguration day.. How much more dirt will pile up on these guys when they think they got the keys to the kingdom..
Looks like everything is right on schedule. Insurrection act is in effect. Flynn is in charge. USA Inc dissolved. Hold on a little longer. March 4th will be our day. I hate promised dates as much as you do but this will all be over soon.
The wrinkled flags with the gold hair around them for the speech, was a farewell speech to the american corporation, we will be back was our signal to hang in there its almost over. Because when he comes up we will have our America without the corporation and he will be sworn in as the 19th president of America the country before it fell to the global corporation. The election fraud is significant and will be overturned. The PRE RECORDED INAUGURATION was aired at 7am in spain which is 1am in Washington D.C is district of colombia(NOT USA SOIL) in which the gates with the locks on the outside of the fence are a signal of no ones leaving. President Trump is still the president, hes just letting his best friends named the military handle this one. Best is yet to come, is we are getting our republic that we fought for in 1776 BACK. Not the globalist Corporation we needed because of debt. JUST HANG IN THERE AND BLOCK THE FUCKIN TROLLS. There was no flag flying because there is NO ACTING PRESIDENT, FEMA leaders are president and vice president while the swamp is drained.
I had to calm down.....x22 and the Marshall report made it clearer to me. Never doubted my President, but I didn’t understand the complexities.....I’m in awe of Donald Trump🇺🇸
Have faith in the Plan...look it up...the District of Columbia is a Sovereign State owned by the Vatican which is in the process of having it"s assets stripped. There will be a new capital of the US of A and Trump will be the Overlord or King...to be decided. Biden is just the President of the Corporation...hold the line and stick to the Plan...no violence :flag_gb::flag_gb:
Type in antifa. Com like on Google and it redirects you to the White House
Barbara only communist sympathizers are on fascistbook 🤡
Were at war people All you scum mfs who let that shit in our country fk u forever fk u i stand for the people whos sacrificed whos died from fighting the very thing u mfs let in fk u foever people like bon jovi garth brooks fk u come around me you fking socialist scum fk u u just steped on the very people whos sacrificed for our freedoms fk u We are not backing down its inly gonna get fking worse people died for me ill die for them
Pt. 3, 1/21
I just watched Simons video today. Its reassuring that they WERE planning on arresting all of them on inaguration, but very upsetting that they are threating the lives of hundreds, to maybe up to thousands of people just to not get arrested. I cant wait for the military to fix the problem, find a bomb maybe, get around their threat and kill these satanist, terrorist, pedophilic, group of people. The day i see them all get executed will be the best day of my life. They threaten america, they are going to die.
The democrats threatened the military so they wouldnt arrest them. Peoples lives are at stake. Thats why they arrent moving in to arrest them yet.
May have gotten a little drunk last night and stayed up until 3:30 a.m. seemed to be a popular idea though.... I am usually in bed by 8 or 9 p.m. but the day seemed to call for some " think in drink in " anyone else? The guy at the liquor store said that everyone seemed to be doing the same thing yesterday..... Q has done more to put Biden in office than all the other leftist groups combined.
Not believing in Q or WWG1WGA is like the Catholic Church not wanting peasants to know how to read.
Anyone else notice the hunger games dresses all the women were wearing yesterday? Symbolism will be their downfall. I need to watch that movie again.
i just want the EBS to kick in, that is all i dont care when, but just kick in
I think right now we all have to keep this between us for a while longer. It will unfold soon enough. Think of it as a delicious secret.
Folks all I know is, this is the BESTEST GROUP I have ever been in bar none. I've been in groups from AOL,YAHOO, and others and the diversity of people and the comments makes for a tight knit group, which I love to come into and express my opinions and listen to yours. I love you all!!!:heart::heart::heart:
I bet those 50,000 people are feeling the impact of this military fake goverment. It’s such a HUGE ELABORATE plan that the job loss and the military family threats is all part of the storm. How long! How long will this go on! I’m asking genuine questions. Does Biden have that power LR. the military. It’s one or the other. Can’t be both!
Red 4,5,6 didn’t happen! Total BS. When someone tells you to Hold the Line, they’re saying STFU, stay home, and do what you’re told, or else! Sorry, I never bought the Q BS. 26 years military told me you never tell the enemy anything publicly, and disinformation, although smart, what Q and Dave told us was to give us false hope and demoralize us. Folks, if you watch Newsmax, OAN, and read Epoch Times you will be much more informed. You know why the conservative news isn’t talking about Q and X22? Because they would lose their fan base. Die hard conservatives who are hooked on Q and X22 don’t wanna hear negativity, but are now pissed they got played! Thank your CIA for that. Now use that anger and let ’s do stuff to take our country back!
I really don’t like not hearing from President Trump. The best part about COVID was seeing him talk every night. You know, in the beginning.
Can anyone tell me why the military is now breaking down equipment, fencing, and troops being transported out of DC? I ask because I thought they were supposed to be in charge now. My son's company is returning to Ft Andrews
What happen to Sydney Powell. She fell off the face of earth.
I'm guessing Sydney Powell is sitting quietly in the wings, seeing as she is a military lawyer
Gonna sign off today. I still have faith in The Plan. I did NOT see a defeated man step on or off of that plane. Hope that you all find some peace. Im going to eat some POPCORN!!!
I think inauguration was possible cgi. For some reason Jill B shoes were tan then a bit later they were teal and then a bit later they were tan again. Strange
I spent a good bit of time this morning adding a dislike to every Biden video I could find on yt
Everybody should (gently) troll FB group “the other 98%” Debunk all their propaganda post with facts that expose the fake news. Maybe we can wake up a few of the sleepers!
So yall say to fill tubs. We have grinder pumps. Without power the fill up what do we do then??
While everyone is listening to that Hunter video thumbs down all the white house vids there aren't many! Keep disliking them its easy we can do that from home we are in and out of these vids all day
So who saw the satanic ritual video floating about with Trump at the end saying he was part of the club but he got out. I thought nobody got out alive?
Soooo ok the military is drawing down in DC. So yes its over. So what lies you all selling today
I learned that following any of these X22, Simon Parks, Charlie wood etc .. they have good content that can make sense but why on earth would anything they are predicting come true? They are openly talking on platforms that anyone n everyone can access. Trump, MIlitary, Top notch strategy intel won’t be shared publicly in any way shape or form! They are good at decoding Q that’s it. The rest of their time lines are BS
What matters is that Biden is on House Arrest in the White House and is under investigation. Him, Pelosi, and all involved will fall. The swamp will be drained, hopefully..peacefully, otherwise the military will restore order. I however am full of rage I would love to unleash, but watching them get a taste of their own bullshit will be just as satisfying.
Top picks to probably get you some money (in my opinion) for coins under 1$
My shit honest opinion on what to invest according to the latest trend and posts that ive been reading, including news articles and actual last month researches and their thoughts and whatnots, to think of what the safest bets to be putting any sorts of money for a short up to a long profitable comeback would be;
Cardano ADA, currently the best safe investment and on the time of writing its at 0.9$ a piece, it was actually thought to break the 1$ far later, but people did dig into it pretty fast and now that it got the hype, id love to see people actually use the coin for its purposes it has, and you cannot mine ADA but you could stake it. Its a safe investment, since even in their own predictable placements they think that in less than 5-10 years it could reach the 10$ mark, even though it would take alot of money and whatsoever, but the more the merrier.
Stellar XLM, currently 0.55$ on the time of writing, many bullish sites and traders whatsoever didnt believe on the coin to actually reach any higher than 50 cents per coin, atleast not this year, but here we are 2 months into 2021 and we see it pass the 50 cent mark, in the long run towards the years, its ludicrous to think that stellar would reach over 3-6$ but it could. Ans probability if things go as planned it could reach the mark of 3-4!$ per coin, safe bet on a long run, short term not so much unless u wanna pump n dump.
Dogecoin, the memecoin itself. If u havent spent and chipped atleast like 10-20$ in it, idk what ur doing. U can buy the dips, sell the peaks, its the easiest platform of pump n dump, its all it has been, from the hype up to whatever else, great for short term profit but make sure u know the fees and whatnots when exchanging for other cryptos!
Tron TRX, currently at 0.04$. Not as famous as many other coins in the market itself, not as memeful either, but its high market cap wont be able to let this coin pass past an certain amount and certainly wont reach high thousands of dollars ammounts either, its not mineable same like cardano, but according to many it seems like tron could handle the transactions best among other coins and faster, its best used on dapps, and its supposed to reach 30cents by the end of 2021, and to ur surprise in 2018 it was at 30 cents max, so its gonna surpass that, safe for long term also for short term investment.
The Graph, (not under 1$) up until recently i didnt know this existed, but it seemed very very promising, if it gains the right traction of people, and the right ammount of users actually using the coin. It would certainly make the price alot higher than 2$, that it reached today. Probability is high that it will pass the 10-15$ mark, during the next 3-4 years. U could easily invest some leftover cash that u wouldnt plan on using on this coin, and probability woild be high that you would +300-%500% that money during the long term period.
Basic Attention Token BAT, its widely used in the brave browser mostly, and it has its highest use there. Currently its on 50cents, it was on 20 cents 2 weeks ago, and i could see this coin actually reaching the 1$ mark. Why? Well it has its usage in a browser which you could do it urself and get rewarded for doing so, people are actually interested, and use it to reward each other and creators within the browser itself. Its widely used among many sites once they get verified from brave itself, and its pretty neat, just like theta was 1-2 years ago, but now its at 2-3$. Theta was used in streaming services as a reward system, i could see BAT into the 1-2$ territori easily! But not more.
Siacoin, it just hit 1cent mark, could easily triple or quadriple in its value, its volatile but if u like the risk, it wouldnt cost u much to invest 10-15 dollar and wait for it to hit 10 cents and turn that to a 100$, easily. But its volatile, and u neve know, in the last 24h it got up to 25% increase, so u never actually know about this one!
Xrp, old ripple, many say it can reach from 5 to 25$ this year alone. Get some, leave some, reach some!
I am not an expert, i read what i can, and invest what i can. Mostly ive dealt my coins into skins of steam and from skins to cryptos many times, ive managed to turn a 200 into a 2000 in less than a year. You could too, its not that hard, it takes patience, and some knowledge to what youre doing, but keep it in mind that only put what u can lose, even if that be 20-30% of the money u’ll lose before cashing out. Keep in mind the fees and remember that coins are never predictable at 100%, u never know for sure, but there are predictions and hope in many of them! Many coins fail to make it, most of them due to no traction, many to no use at all and many as a joke or a test. And some even to the high ammount of market cap, that it wont ever reach the ends therefore never getting a ‘real price’ over demand and supply. But id suggest to keep 200-300 of coins on each coin thats under 1 cent mark or less, it wouldnt cost u more than 1 dollar... and u never know what could be the next big 100$ coin. Edit; added ripple!
$MP mega-DD -- MP Materials: The Money Printer --EV/Renewable Infrastructure and REEEEEEEEEE's
WARNING: 8TH GRADE READING LEVEL REQUIRED FOR MATERIAL
Intro/Disclaimer
yeah its long as fuck, but read for tendies. If its too long suck a bear dick and move on. This is real analysis of the business model, not just a bunch of emojis. It is so long because of the niche field it is operating in and how a lot of key points are not understood well by the WSB community. This company really is a diamond in the rough and a great way to play future trends with less risk as you're not picking winners. Its the "picks and shovels" play of electrification and renewable energies. I'll explain the realistic case for how this company is soon going to be running the best tendie mine for decades to come. This is my second DD post on now $MP, formerly $FVAC, and i'm back to discuss the developments of the company since my pre-merger post and add some further analysis about the valuation of the company and its future. There has been too much really shitty DD from both bulls and bears on this companywhere very few people on here have a real understanding of this company, their business model, and the future. First - read my original DD post in order to have a decent understanding of the backstory cause I'm not about to type out all that shit again or explain what I've already written. Read that first then come back: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/jgvarn/fvac_dd_evchina_tension_play/ That post discusses mainly international tensions and the role REE's but this one i'll speak more on the business case of this company and how even without geopolitical tensions it is a true tendie mine. Second - no I'm not a bag holder Ive been in since it was a pre-merged SPAC my average on my shares is about $14 and my LEAP is far far ITM and no I'm not selling any of them. Also, as i referenced in the post I work in a very similar field and interned in college at a mineral mine in the refining aspect as a chemical engineer, so while I'm not an expert at this I have more insight than the average retard and I am trying to give out tendies before the boomers take them from us. I will try my best to explain the business model of a mining company and why this company is the most unique and interesting way to get tech company level growth with the associated free cash flow while not having to be anywhere near as innovative. Ill discuss a lot of the bear arguments for this company as well and try to de-bunk them as most don't really hold water once you look into them the slightest bit.
Background of NdPr
While the company produces as basket of Rare Earth, the plant is aiming to focus on NdPr and other permanent magnet materials in order to play the trend of EV's and electrification. These magnets are extremely important for so many technologies due to how Electric motors work. To put it simply, at current technology the only way to convert electricity to motion or the only way to convert motion to electricity relies on permanent magnets. Im not gonna try to explain more than that because I too am retarded but if you don't believe me or want to learn how watch this video: yeah i know you didn't watch that video, but just imagine you did and now believe me. However, because it works both ways BOTH electric motors AND electric generators rely on this technology. This is key for understanding how NdPr is the best way to play both the trends of electrification AND renewables. First, electrification is most embodied by the rise in EV's in the future, and while that is predicted to be the fastest growing segment of NdPr demand it is foolish to not to account for other evolving technologies reliant on electric motors as well. Robotics will be a huge growth market and electrification of other industries will rely on NdPr permanent magnets. The other massive growth opportunity for permanent magnets is through renewable energies. Wind energy (and possible future motion based energy harvesting tech like tidal energy) work through harvesting mechanical motion and turning a generator to create electricity. Wind power doesn't work without electric generators which don't work without magnets. In addition, wind tech is advancing down a path to require even more magnets due to improvements is Permanent Magnet Direct-Drive (PMDD) technology from the current Gearbox doubly-fed induction Generator (DFIG). Essentially what that means is the new technology will take out the gearbox currently used in wind mills and replacing them with more efficient direct driving technology allowing more mechanical motion into electricity. These new generators require stronger magnets, thus more magnetic material. Read more about that here: TLDR: They mine mainly permanent magnet materials that at current scientific understanding CANNOT be replaced due to their unique electromagnetic properties. TLDR on the TLDR: Special Rocks no replacing. Need special rocks.
$MP's expansion plans
A lot of bears like to bring up the fact that $MP is still reliant on China to do their refining and they're correct... for now. Currently they mine on site and refine to REE concentrates which they then send to china to refine into Rare Earth Oxides (REO's), which then get send to become metal alloys and then finally to magnets. Currently is the only location in the world to refine past concentrate material so $MP is forced to send their material there, but that is why the went public. The intent of them going public was to raise funds in order build an on-site REO facitility, which is scheduled for completion in 2022 and is already started. They already have enough cash on hand to furnish this upgrade as they had over $500M on hand at the end of Q3, and they also are a cash flow positive company already before even moving downstream. There are EV infrastructure plays with much worse valuations and years away from breaking even on cash flow, yes I'm talking to you $QS bagholders... that tech is unproven and there are so many battery competitors in a field where there WILL be a winner Why would they want to move downstream when they're already profitable??? Because the further downstream they go the higher margins they earn and the more tendies they can mine for us. Refining raw materials to useful materials is a value adding process and thus creates more value for the company that does it. Once they complete this expansion they plan on going to stage 3 of their business model, the ability to build magnets and other final products of REE's in America. They have not decided/disclosed their plans for this, whether it is through construction of an onsite facility, an acquisition, or a joint venture, but it is in the plans. This is expected to come online around 2025 and when the insane cash flow can begin for the company. I don't have any reason to doubt the validity of their intention as its just a continuation of the business model they are currently implementing and the majority of the corporate rhetoric is related to "mine-to-magnet" and "restoring the REE supply chain to America." What does this mean for the company? as they move further and further downstream they will increase their margins from this action alone, but it gets even better. This can be shown in their in-house calculations of their 2023 adj. EBITDA target of $252M ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf it is important to note that those numbers are from the current step they are taking right now in building the REO refining facility. Adding further downstream capabilities will only cause that EBITDA value to grow as margins improve, but next I'll discuss where their margins will improve from EVEN MORE. TLDR: downstream expansion is a way to increase margins and therefore free cash flow for the company. TLDR of TLDR: Special rock get more special. Get more tendies for special rock.
Business model of mining companies and why $MP has insane growth potential
\**This is the most important part of this long ass post, if you read one section, then read this*** A big disconnect on a lot of DD in this sub and analysis elsewhere is the economics of how a mining company works. A mine is by definition a COMMODITY PLAY, which I know is not as exciting as a tech company, BUT it will experience tech sector growth for a period of time and then experience a period of time in which develop into a cash cow business reaping huge dividends for shareholders. What i mean by a commodity play is through the economics of how a mine operates. Given a mine at a fixed production volume, the costs on a year in year out basis are relatively similar. What i mean by this is the cost $MP to mine and refine into concentrate will be the same no matter the price of their product. However, the revenue they receive is dependent on the market price of their product, which is what varies the most. An easy way to describe this is through taking a look at their Q3 2020 financial results presentation: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf That value of Production cost (at the current stage of just creating REE concentrates) will realistically stay the same as that value is from the cost of labor, energy for machinery, administrative costs, etc. While these numbers will vary from quarter to quarter these are costs not predicted to experience rapid growth and this is what is important to realize. It costs roughly the same amount of money to pay someone to blast ore, dig it into dump trucks, pay operators to refine into ore, etc. Don't trust me, look into how steel companies operate, like this sub's favorite $MT. The revenue they receive is dependent on the price of REE's, which is NOT PREDICTED TO BE FLAT. Here is the historic graph of Neodymium from 2011-current: ​ https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium **If you are an investor in $MP (which you should be) this is an important website to pay attention to because understanding the market dynamics of their product is important to understanding the valuation of this company. ** Allow me to disect that graph a little bit: 1st Peak: From the aftermath of the supply shock from 2010/2011 from the Japanese Navy and Chinese fisherman story i discusses in my previous $FVAC post i linked above. China lowered exports by 40% and the price shot up drastically as industries across the world tried to gobble up as much NdPr as fast as possible in order to ensure their production lines. That was then followed by china flooding the market and selling back that backlog. that caused prices to fall off a cliff and ended up taking molyorp out of business. I'll discuss the Molycorp saga later more in depth and the differences of them and $MP. 2nd Peak: This peak (late 2017) is from the Trade war trump caused with china and is another good explanation of the correlation between REE's and geopolitics i discussed in my last DD post. The middle 2019 peak is again the trade war heating up again. 3rd peak: where we are now. This is from the increased tailwind of EV adoption, more from asia and Europe than the US and because china has been threatening to use REE's as a political tool again, which again i referenced more in my last DD post. However going forward if you want to predict the amount of revenue MP will earn its important to understand the market dynamic and I'd like to discuss why the price is geopolitics aside predicted to steadily increase at a very fast rate. MP, like any other commodity play, relies on the supply-demand dynamic of the sector, and REE demand growth is on track to far outstrip the supply growth. This will result increased prices per ton, but MP's costs stay the same. This is the beauty of the company, as the price goes up their margins go up too! MP and market analysts predicted over a 100% growth in NdPr magnets in the next 10 years: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf Don't believe that metric? check this more in depth one: ​ https://www.arultd.com/products/supply-and-demand.html This graph shows most important metric as it shows that the world at current rate is not scaling up to meet demand. THIS GRAPH INCLUDES CURRENT PLANNED EXPANSIONS INCLUDING INCREASED RECYCLING. What does this mean?? There is a huge mismatch in projected demand and supply and if you don't know what that will mean then ask your wife's boyfriend about supply-demand graphs from their economics class. The result will be massively increased prices of permanent magnet materials because the world will not be able to mine and refine enough to satisfy demand, so they will be able to increase their prices. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, MP'S COSTS PER TON WILL REMAIN THE SAME. So what is the gist of this coupled with MP moving toward downstream expansion? MP's margins will increase incredibly from a double whammy of moving downstream AND supply-demand imbalance. Now what does that mean for you?? that means $MP has a very realistic and conservative path toward becoming a company with RIDICULOUS free cash flow. What does that mean for MP? That means that the company will be raking in cash and will be extremely flexible due to their balance sheet. They will be able to expand operations or acquire competitors in order to increase their market share and production volumes OR they will be able to transition into a boomer dividend company that will pay you tendies each year. They could do either of those very easily because the company HAS NO DEBT. In fact, $MP ended Q3 2020 with $507M CASH on hand to finance their future expansions. Okay, i know dividends are boring but the market will begin to price in that future dividend potential and give your calls many tendies along the path to pricing in their dividend power. TLDR: Supply demand imbalance (with geopolitical tensions as a wild card) will result in insane free cash flow in the future for this company. TLDR of the TLDR: People want more special rock more than can make special rock. People give you more tendies for special rocks.
Why Supply won't be able to scale up as fast
A very important assumption in my analysis is the inability for supply to scale up as fast as demand and I'd like to explain this more in depth as it is the crux of this DD. This is where my experience in mineral refining is valuable as I can weigh in on this aspect. Over time there will be more suppliers that come into the business and we are seeing that already, however this is where the timetables of that come into play. Simply put supply can't go up because companies will be slowed greatly due to the time it will take to get up and running and the incredible amount of upfront capital needed before even starting up the mine. If a company is interested in getting into the field there isn't a fast path in because the companies can't just decide to go into the business and then go to the "REE refining machinery store" and buy the equipment and have them get set up. All the machinery in chemical manufacturing plants (REE refining counts as chemical engineering so hear me out) has a long path in order to reach the optimum design. Ill outline the gist of this here:
Lab Scale Testing: This is laboratory scale testing in which very small batches are prepared testing different procedures and methods in order to find the optimum refining process for the goals of the operation. This is when the deciding of the catalysts, solvents, additive chemicals, etc is done in order to decide what to do to the ore to get the best product.
Pilot Plant Design and Testing: This step in the design process is designing and building a small scale model of machinery to run the process decided upon in lab scale testing in order to determine different operating conditions, determine control points, etc. This is when different tests and procedures are determined and also a proof of concept to begin economic calculations for designing the next step.
Full scale design and building: This is when the full size, real-deal machinery is designed and constructed. But again, there is not "REE refining manufacturing store" to get much of this machinery. Refining plants are custom designed (minus certain machinery like pumps and basic ass shit like that) and custom built. These are custom designed, custom fabricated large scale machinery designed in every aspect from material, area, volume, and depth in order to lower manufacturing costs while also allowing for 24/7 continuous operation. The 24/7 operation aspect is important because it is why the machinery is designed so meticulously. The most economic operations are ones that require little down time and little maintenance and a lot of work is put in to optimize this aspect. That means it takes even more time to produce.
Permitting and Certification: Now at this point the company is years into the development of REE refining, but they still can't start operating despite the entire operation up and running. In the US, now the lovely and very fast government gets to come in. Mining and refining operations don't operate under OSHA rules and procedures, they get to operate under OSHA's much meaner, expensive, and safety prone brother, the Mining Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). Government inspectors have to come in and permit and certify EVERY PIECE OF MACHINERY, inspect every single moving part and permit them, and do a shit ton of other stuff for the government to allow you to begin operations. Now due to the stimulus bill's provisions toward stimulating REE capabilities in the United states I assume that MSHA will be (or already has been) told to prioritize REE companies and they will probably be fast tracked, but even fast tracking them will take a lot of time. In addition EPA has to come in and sign off on the environmental plans of the company and probably even more government entities will have to come in to sign off on stuff that was past my exposure when I interned in the field.
Now you've seen how long it would take to get up and running, but another constraint worth mentioning is who does these? Larger Chemical or mining companies (Dow, DuPont, Chemours, BASF, etc) looking to enter the field probably have their own design teams that would be able to do it in house. Smaller, non-conglomerate entities would have to hire a chemical engineering design/consulting firm to come in and do the designing, write the procedures, and train the production engineers and operators. That means there is some decent intellectual constraints as to how many people have the know-how to design at the rate needed to scale up. Here is what is important, any entity trying to enter the sector will have enormous upfront costs in buying the land, designing the plant, buying the machinery like excavators, dump trucks, pipelines, pay employees well before starting due to training on the machinery. Im not sure the exact amounts of money needed but it would easily be in the 100s of millions at least. Then once all that upfront capital is sourced, plant designed, people trained, etc the operation would take YEARS to get out of all that debt and achieve meaningful positive cash flow. It is only a matter of time for $MP to have significant domestic competition, but by the time these operations could begin operating $MP will be so far ahead in production and have a significantly stronger balance sheet than these companies could have. $MP will remain years ahead of any other domestic competitors, even though competition will come. TLDR: At current outlook supply growth won't match demand growth and even if more competitors pop up to compete it'll take years to start operating and even more years to match $MP's ability. TLDR on the TLDR: Not enough people finding special rock. More people want special rock than can get special rock. They pay more for special rock.
$MP's competitors, both domestic and international
A large argument that bears like to make is that competition is coming in the US, and they are 100% correct.... but it won't matter because AGAIN this is a commodity play, not a tech company. They make magnets, their revenue will depend on the price of their product. Buyers from this are not looking at $MP like you would look at $TSLA vs. $NIO or apple vs android where you could argue one is better than the other or consumers will adopt one over the other. There isn't brand recognition, increased utility, or consumer favorites in magnets, they're fucking magnets. Think about it like another commodity, lumber. If you go to $HD to buy some wood you aren't staring at two different planks of the same type of tree and picking one because of which timber company felled it or which milling company milled it. You just buy lumber and go home because it is wood. A timber company isn't outright threatened by another timber company popping up, as long as the demand-supply dynamic in the market stays the same the first timber company is unaffected. That is why it won't matter WHEN more domestic and international competitors pop up. As long as demand outstrips supply then commodity companies will make more and more money. Now I am not trying to bullshit people so I'll discuss the international and domestic competition, but Ill explain more in depth why i don't give a shit about them. Domestic: The ticker that cannot be named due to it being banned. If you take a look at that company it is a Uranium producer that is going to re-purpose machinery onsite from uranium production to REE production and they have successfully done pilot plant level processing. However if you analyze their production numbers you'll see that the scale they plan on producing is not quite at the level $MP will. They plan on refining 15,000 tons of ore per year with an estimated 55% REE concentration, which leaves an estimated 8,250 tons of REE per year, of which 22% is NdP (all their numbers not mine), which leaves annual production of 1,815 tons/yr. These numbers are pretty good and I do own a stake in this company because I like the potential, but its scale is not quite the scale of $MP. $MP is predicting a run rate of 6,075 tons/yr of NdPr, so yes the banned ticker is a decent competitor but its only predicting to be 1/3 the size of $MP annual production volume. A downside of the banned ticker is that they still are focusing on Uranium production so its not a pure REE play, but Uranium has a pretty decent bull case for the future so i don't want to slander that ticker too much. However, again, these are commodity plays, $MP having competition, even domestic, doest really affect their business plans or bull case. Additionally, the banned ticker is sourcing its ore rom Chemours' location in GA, but getting milled in Utah, so this is a long term inefficiency to consider as well that $MP won't have to worry about once their stage 2 REO mill is complete. the banned tickers financial health is pretty decent, but its market cap is $516M at close 1/4 which is just slightly above amount of cash on hand $MP had at the end of Q3 2020, $502M. That company is more of an investment opportunity than a competitor, if its even worth investing in. Other emerging domestic competitors: link to article explaining them all Im not going to go deep into each one but you can see that many are slowed down to the process I explained above about how expensive and time consuming it is to reach operational status. These companies will be coming online, but won't be profitable for a while and won't be able to provide the same returns to investors for even longer. International competitors: Lynas Corp. This is an Australian mining company that has also received pentagon funds to improve the non-China production capacity. They trade over the counter and are a real deal competitor and also worth investing in but their growth potential isn't as clear or easy as in the US. They have pentagon funding more so out of desperation by the pentagon to get more production in the western world than loving to invest in an Australian company. In the future I would imagine a lot of this government support will go toward US based companies. International competitors: all the china ones. yes they produce the largest amount of material in the world and do it the cheapest but this is the result of none to very little environmental protection. Once the supply chain can go "mine to magnet" many companies will look to diminish their exposure to chinese companies to ensure their supply chains are not at the whims of the Chinese government. In addition, $MP is the cleanest REE mine in the world and a lot of environmentally conscious companies will want to support clean mined REE's and once domestic production is high enough there could be regulations passed to further incentivize purchasing domestically produced REE's. All these companies were included in the forecast of supply in 2030. Even with these companies coming online $MP is still positioned for incredible returns. TLDR: Yes competition is coming, but there is already competition. Its also a commodity play so its not facing replacement or redundancy like many other growth markets TLDR on the TLDR: Others find special rock. Your special rock still worth many tendies. You still get many tendies.
Why this is NOT molycorp 2.0
The most common point of argument against this company is that people bring up the fact that the mine $MP operates used to be run by Molycorp, which went bankrupt. However if you read into that transaction it really isn't that scary. Molycorp did go under but this was in a period of price instability and they were not running as good of an operation. Molycorp operated during the 2010-2011 peak of REE's when china restricted supply. Molycorp stock went up a ton in addition to their revenue and thus they decided to invest in milling capabilities to create REO's (I know this is $MP's plan but don't get scared yet). Because of US EPA restrictions it was wildly expensive and at bankruptcy they had $1.7B in investments into capital projects to improve their refining capability, but the subsequent REE price collapse when china "turned the taps back on" to the world supply caused them to not afford operation. The site then changed hands back and forth until it was bought by $MP's current management for $40M. They then invested in it after literally buying for less than pennies on the dollar and got it up and running more efficiently than before. Last quarter Q3 2020 they ran 3.2x the REE concentrate production volume than Molycorp ever did: ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf They got to buy over $1.7B worth of investments for $40M and have proven they have turned those investments into operating profit. In addition, previous operations prioritized Cerium production for FCC catalysts. $MP has transitioned the goal product to be NdPr as it has much better growth potential to give it long term possibility. In addition, the market climate Molycorp operated under was not as forgiving as now. Back then there wasn't the tailwind of increasing EV adoption, or the rise of other high tech growth sector reliant on REE's. Molycorp was too early and inefficient to win in the market and didn't have anywhere close to the amount of governmental support for the industry. There is bipartisan support on all levels, i mentioned this a bit in my last DD post, but since then - and this is big and shows the scale of gov support- THE LAST STIMULUS BILL HAD $800M IN SUPPORT OF INCREASING DOMESTIC REE PRODUCTION! Molycorp didn't have anywhere close to this level of government support. And again, the pentagon invested $9M into $MP to help fund their REO mill because the pentagon views the ability to refine REO's as a matter of national security.
Discussing Concerns about Biden Presidency
People who say this shit clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Biden (or his puppet masters but who cares money is all green) has said he supports REE mining multiple times source. His team knows their big environmental initiatives rely on REE production and that domestic production is important to keep American industry at the whims of China. Yeah Trump was more hawkish with china but lets not act like a democratic presidency is going to let china walk all over the US or that Biden and other democrats will stop their push for EV's and clean energy. REE's are a cornerstone piece to so many of Biden's plans there is no way he turns his back on this company.
Discussion of Shenghe Resources and China and their relationships with $MP
The one real concern that people have is their partnership with Shenghe Resources where Shenghe has agreed to buy all $MP concentrate through 2021 and shenghe is a stakeholder in $MP. Many view this as a negative, but i think it should be seen as a good way to ensure survival in the gap between now and the final magnet production. A big issue would be if China chose to stop importing the MP concentrate, which would give MP no customers. Since this would adversely affect Shenge it makes it less likely and also the fact that MP produces 15% of the world's REE concentrate it would hurt the supply in china, which is huge. In fact, China removed their 25% tariff on importing REE material, read this source as it also shows how china is buying up all the concentrate they can. Japan has the capability to go from REO to NdPr magnet as well so if china ends up fucking MP, starting in 2022 when their REO site is in operation then they will be able to sell their REO to Japanese companies to bridge the gap before they have their own magnet making capability. ​ https://s25.q4cdn.com/570172628/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/MP-3Q20-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-11.23.2020.pdf China is not likely to fuck MP and stop buying their concentrate as it will hurt china's wallet and ability to produce goods while only increasing the US government support for going mine to magnet domestically. China realistically views their dominance as ending at some point now, but they know they will still be able to control the market because of their scale regardless of whether they buy MP concentrates or not. Also, if Shenghe doesn't buy their concentrates then they forfeit their stake in MP. they wouldn't be allowed to sell them on the market, the shares would just disappear, so it would effectively be a massive stock buyback and as long as the REO mill is complete then they just sell to Japanese magnet makers.
Mine Life discussion
Their S-1 states that at current proven reserves they have about 47 years of mine life left. That can be grown from drilling and exploration of more mineable material, which they stated they plan on doing. in addition, if they for some reason don't find more mineable ore on their land and don't buy more land with ore, then they could simply refine ore from other mines as the real cost barrier isn't the digging out of the ground, it is the milling.
TLDR
$MP will to the moon over the next few years. Postions: shares for virgins and LEAPs for chads. ​ Edit: addressing $QS collapse today (1/4 after a -40% on $QS) and the associated EV infrastructure. I think $QS hitting the shitter, well, predictable. People flooded to it as a result of attempting to find a parallel way to play the rise of EV's without understanding the company. $QS is a solid state battery technology, but I have never held a stake in it because, well, all it is is an idea or concept. It fell today as a result of a report criticizing the basis of its technology and I have to agree, the tech is not proven and even if it works as advertised there is a question of whether it could ever solidify its valuation, even after its collapse today. Solid state batteries MAY be the future, but for now their real place is in university and R&D laboratories as the tech is not proven to work as advertised. They are in the same situation as liquid metal batteries, cool ideas without the proof they will be successful in the market. HOWEVER, $MP is a way to play EV's & Renewable energy without the risk because $MP is not relying on scientific breakthroughs, it is a commodity producer. They don't care who wins the EV race, the battery tech or company that wins the battery race, or the wind energy companies that win contracts, all they care about is the mass adoption fo those technologies. It is a unique way to play these trends without having to bet on winners or losers in the field as you're betting solely on the industry. The company is positioned to benefit greatly regardless of who wins and lets be real, the market is incredibly saturated with companies that won't win. Look at all the different EV makers big and small, the different battery companies, etc. I have a tough believing that all the small EV makers will have a shot when the large auto companies get more involved. I believe the best way to see profit without that risk is through symmetrical bets with no breakthroughs needed, just the market to develop EDIT 2: Further DD/ another take. Yeah maybe 1 person will actually read it but it’s a lot shorter than mine, really won’t take long to read the thread. It is not my DD but rather an obscure Twitter account I have no connection to but they bring up further interesting bull arguments and address current valuation better than I can. I have no finance background so I didn’t try to pin a price or movement. https://twitter.com/dawn_capital/status/1346134740659818496?s=21 Edit 3: Research report from brand essence research estimates that REE market size is expected to reach $20.6 Billion by 2025, significantly higher the the 11 billion size from 2019 with a CAGR of 8.2%. MP currently produces 15% of the ore in the world and in 2022 is expected to be milling REO. Let’s say global production does increase and $MP doesn’t expand out and falls to 10% of global supply. That’s still about $2 Billion in revenue with higher margins than they operate on right now because of REO production.... it’s a tendie mine🚀🚀🚀 https://brandessenceresearch.biz/chemicals-and-materials/top-growth-on-rare-metals-market-size-and-share/Summary Disclaimer: this is my thoughts on the company and market, yet I am on this site and also retarded. I am long via shares and call and am a true believer in them but best in mind my confirmation bias. Not investment advice, do your own DD, buying and selling $MP is your own decision
Disclaimer from Quora: A true short squeeze is a fairly rare event. There are probably 100 predicted for every 1 that occurs.* There needs to be an unexpected positive event. This could be a huge earnings surprise, a takeover offer, new patent, drug approval, etc. Unscrupulous stock promoters (PUMPERS) often dangle a potential short squeeze as a carrot to entice inexperienced investors to buy a bad stock. For instance, you will find predictions of a “massive short squeeze” on virtually every message board for every penny biotech stock. If you point out that there is insufficient short interest for a squeeze, the promoters just add lies about “naked short selling”.*
There, nobody sue me for the pennies I have. The following is all for entertainment purposes only: The intro: Sup gamblers. Feel bad about missing the gain train on TSLA? Fear not - something much greater and stupider is here. You know Citadel? The MM that took all our money today? Well now we finally won’t be at the mercy of the MMs. Instead, we’re going to temporarily join forces with the Galactic Empire and hijack the death star. Our choice of weapon... $GME. The setup: Huh?? Isn’t GME an absolute piece of trash stock? NO (will explain below), and even if it is, it's not entirely relevant. The this turn around is going to make TSLA's short burn look like warm afternoon tea. Why? Well, most short squeezes are mostly math. This one is special because we have math AND great underlying news. To be clear, this will happen whether or not we participate. I prefer us idiots to be a part of history. Here’s what’s up: Short interest: GME currently has between 85% - 99.8% short interest, depending on what site you use. For context, 20% is already considered high as the moon. TSLA and NFLX were around 30-40% at their peak. But GME’S ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST IS OVER 110%. In case you think I’ve gone nuts, look below: Shares Outstanding (June 2) = 64.8M
Insider Shares (June 30) = 8.9M
Total = Public Float = SO - IS = 55.8 M
Ryan Cohen Shares (8/31) = 6.2M
Total = Adjusted Public Float - Ryan Cohen = 49.6M Shares Shorted (9/2) = 55.7M % Shorted (Total Shares) = 86% % Shorted (Float) = 99.8% % Shorted (Adj. Float) = 112.3% This is unheard of. Also, the short interest ratio/days to cover is 16 DAYS right now. Shorts are beyond trapped in their position. And the insiders? They won’t sell. In fact.. they’ve been BUYING. Fine, what if the shorts are correct? They’ve been printing for 5 years. Ok fellow gamblers, here’s where the real DD comes in. The reversal: 3 big things will cause this reversal. Ryan Cohen, retail option buying, and Kenny G (Citadel) himself. Who’s Ryan Cohen? Ryan Cohen sold Chewy in 2017 for $3.3 billion. He poured most of his money into Apple and Wells Fargo, saying he hates diversification and only goes all in into things he has high conviction in. Cohen is a Buffet-like investor. He is the largest individual owner of AAPL, and has sat on his hands doing nothing for 3 years. Until last week… he went long on $GME. Who cares right? He’s just another gambler like us willing to lose money. Not in this case… RC is special due to his expertise in e-commerce. He understands how a smaller company can compete against Amazon and Walmart despite heavy competition. THAT, combined with his hatred against diworsification makes his interest in GME a bit special. RC can spin this into an e-commerce/tech company, which would make Wall Street drool from their mouths. He’s already caught the attention of a few people, hence the recent 75% run up since the RC announcement. RC only needs to disclose his investments every 10 days. If he’s been buying since 8/31, we won’t know until this week. Add to that, the original contrarian Michael Burry found that 90% of stores were free cash flow positive before COVID. GME’s balance sheet is healthy with $100M in net cash (around $500M cash and $400M debt), so they aren’t going bankrupt anytime soon. They also added 2 more activist investors, Kurtis Wolf and Paul Evans, who were nominated by Hestia Capital Partners and Permit Capital Enterprise Fund, to turn the ship around. All this meaning, prominent figures have sKiN iN tHe gAmE, and if needed (unlikely) they have more cash to see it through. Second and third, degenerate gambling retail robinhooders + CITADEL. Told you we’re going to work with him this time. Thanks to MMs literally not using their brain and relying on ze maths to configure their entire business, we can take advantage of them sleeping at the wheel for a few seconds, and cause them to ram into GME for us. It looks like this: RH Call Option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Greater retail/RHers price action chasing/call option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Institutional and new channels flip the script -> GME to $400+ -> cash out. By the way. This is NOT a pump and dump. This is a kick in the shorts’ teeth. The stock will STAY HIGH. For reference: if $GME was trading at the same P/S multiple as $CHWY, the share price would be $420. Maths: On being delta neutral - quick refresher from a WSB classic:
“Part of the reason we see outsized moves is when a stock starts moving the dealers who are short the calls need to buy more stock to hedge. This can easily double the amount of buying pressure out there and lead to very exaggerated moves. As the stock goes up, so does the delta of the stocks calls and dealers who were originally perfectly delta hedged before the move effectively become short the stock as it moves higher so they need to buy more stock to “hedge up” or flatten their exposure/risk."
Remember, since GME is literally 99.8% of float short (ignoring RC’s shares for now) they currently HAVE LESS THAN 50,000 SHARES IN LIQUIDITY. https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME As of writing this, delta on average is around 0.200, give or take. Higher for near dated (0.395) lower for long dated (0.195). Let’s be conservative and call it 0.2 for the time being. So now, for every call option I buy, MMs need to delta hedge with 20 shares. Here’s where it gets insane: If $100,000 in calls are bought from RH, Citadel is forced to buy the remaining 50,000 shares. I’m using 10/16 $15C for this example. This is an insanely small amount of money, especially with Ryan Cohen, retail idiots, and the rest of the SeekingAlpha vultures waiting for this play. It’s a ticking time bomb waiting to happen. Let’s say Burry wakes up and decides to drop $600,000 in call options. This is going to force Kenny to delta hedge 300,000 in GME shares. When there are only under 50,000 shares available in PUBLIC FLOAT. This has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN HISTORY. In an accidental squeeze (KBIO, VW), the shorts can’t buy back and get priced out momentarily. Pump and dump. Not what's happening here. In a contrarian bet leading to a squeeze, shorts bail their positions and the stock STAYS HIGH (TSLA, PTON). The stock is no longer being artificially suppressed, and the shorts are NOT going short again. To tell you the truth, I don’t even know how far this is going to blow up, since there is literally no historical precedent for this. I just know things are about to get very very insane. Now also add in the fact that GME is at a 5 year low, which means shorts can be largely satisfied with their gains, and are comfortable covering their shorts. Which, as a reminder, they have to BUY back. -Cut to Ryan Gosling toppling the Jenga pieces- The timing: Alright, if you’ve read up to now, I can assume you’re in. IV is off the charts right now. That’s what happens when a stonk goes up 75% in a week. Sorry, but the Ryan Cohen news is actually big news. PRE-EARNINGS BET There’s no idea how the call will go. So place your bets if you think it will go well. If $GME absolutely misses the mark, this DD is worthless. BTW GME flopped the last 2 earnings - that's why there have been no big gains. Proceed at your own risk. Few things I’m betting on: First, GME beats earnings. All gaming companies, Nintendo, Sony, ATVI beat due to COVID lockdowns. Same store sales should be flat or up, with 300 less total stores. $GME is expected to post a loss of 1.27 EPS. That's way too low. Second, activist investor activity. Cohen is sharp as a knife and will make sure things get aligned correctly. He's more financially oriented than most foundeCEOs. He can probably recite CHWY's balance sheet to you off the top of his head, and he understands the investing environment (bad IPOs, interest rates, SPACs). Meaning, he's not a gung ho YOLO Masayoshi / Grant Cardone coked out founder. He's disciplined. Yea I did some stalking... Well you know I had to. Third, positive news cycle due to Console Cycle: http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_240233258.jpg If you’re wondering why fund managers aren’t covering and going long, remember that they have a JOB. They can’t make contrarian bets at the risk of looking idiotic. Cohen and Burry can because they own their own money. They can talk about how $GME is going to be Blockbustered. Only one problem - GME’s Netflix… is GME itself. By the way, VW was also heavily shorted during a recession because everyone thought they would be bankrupt. Jus sayin. AFTER EARNINGS If GME rockets after earnings, the short squeeze has started and we can pile on weekly 10-20% OTM options to force KG to delta hedge by buying shares, ad infinitum: see $TSLA. If GME tanks, buy cheap options in anticipation of the short burn. The trade: In order to capture the biggest upside, the highest strike call option is best. Remember when TSLA was going up so fast they didn't even have existing options to match the parabolic gains? Same will happen here. We only have $30Cs now, so these will have to do. 15 Jan 2021 $30.00 C. Also, since we don’t know when GME will skyrocket, this gives you time to capture any squeeze that happens. 16 Oct $15.00 C. This lets you capture more asymmetric upside in case the squeeze happens quickly. LAST, and timing is crucial here. ONLY WHEN I get the confirmed signal that the squeeze is happening, I will pound weeklies 10-20% above strike price. Again forcing Kenny to hedge with shares, causing shorts to cover and BUY back, increasing the delta of the call, getting retail and institutional attention, buying more calls/shares, delta hedge, shorts cover, ad infinitum. The weeklies have the highest delta, so Citadel will be forced to hedge the most by buying shares. In other words, we’ll get the biggest bang for our buck in squeezing these. There is a chance Citadel/MMs switches to buying puts to delta hedge. Like I said, they’re asleep at the wheel for a second, retail will likely ram before they change their algos. However, once the squeeze takes off, not even Citadel will be able to stop it. In any case, if they do start to buy puts, we can sell the puts as a bonus. Like dlkdev once said, the only way to beat a rigged game is to rig it even harder. This is not fraud. There is no manipulation here. We aren’t forcing anyone to do anything. It’s going to happen with or without us. But I want to ride. Earnings will light the match, but we can add all sorts of gasoline to the fire. I stole some data/ideas from a couple of different articles on Seeking Alpha/reddit/google/youtube. I’m not claiming credit for this trade, I don’t really care. In fact, I beg you to completely ignore me. I even dare you to short GME. I’ll happily take your money. TL;DR: $GME is vastly oversold. GME is TSLA one year ago. GME is AAPL in 2017. Add to that the greatest short burn you’ll see in history, and you’re in for a hell of a show. Also GME is uncorrelated with the market. It might even be negatively correlated (it was today). It's only worth $500M (3 Bel-Air houses) and fund managers are happy to cut a high risk/low return position. Let your cognitive biases run free. Ryan Cohen & Michael Burry if you see this - you better buy as much as you can now. When GME gets to fair value of $26B+, you won't be able to take over the company and kick out the backwards exec team. Good luck. **Edit1: $GME missed and tanked. Not much Cohen can do in 1 week. IV is dead and liquidity is still dry. Get cheap calls while you still can. PLAY IS STILL ON.
/r/QOTSA Official Band of the Week 39: THE BEATLES, PART ONE
As we continue the month of Banuary with our focus on bands with the letter B, we’ve come to a biggie. So big. Very very big. Like, so big they are like BIG, with a bang, and a capital B-I-G. Not small. BIG. So big are they that we are going to do our first-ever two week focus on one band. This is especially timely right now, because their last-ever concert was on January 30th, 52 years ago. For the purposes of these write ups, we are splitting their music into the Red Album and the Blue Album. If you get it, you get it. This week we will focus on their formation and their first seven studio albums: Please Please Me,With the Beatles,A Hard Day’s Night,Beatles for Sale,Help,Rubber Soul and Revolver. Next week will be all about when their music gets all concept-y and experimental, and we will then focus on Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band,The Beatles (which most people call the White Album), Yellow Submarine,Abbey Road and Let It Be, as well as the dissolution of perhaps the most important band in Rock history. So there you go. The next two weeks are all about a little known underground band from Liverpool called THE BEATLES. About Them You may be a fan. You may not. But you have definitely heard of the four lads from Liverpool who revolutionized music in the 1960’s. Paul McCartney was born in Liverpool in 1942. At age 12, while attending grammar school, he met George Harrison. The two connected immediately. Harrison was a year younger than McCartney (which can be huge when you are kids) but the friendship was an immediate and life long one. Though McCartney was encouraged to take piano lessons and was given a trumpet as a child, he preferred to learn music by ear. He was in a church choir as a youth. But it was not until he started listening to Rock music that anything stuck. At age 14, feeling inspired, he traded the trumpet for an acoustic guitar. He sucked at it. Things just did not feel natural. One day, walking home, he saw an advertisement for a concert by Slim Whitman. He noticed that in the picture, Whitman was playing left handed. After a proverbial light bulb moment, he went home and re-strung his guitar to be just like Whitman. Reversing the instrument was the ticket. He quickly learned to play and began to compose. At age 15, he had already written the melody to When I’m Sixty-Four. John Lennon was born in 1940, making him two years older than McCartney. His middle name, Winston, was after the famous Winston Churchill. Lennon, who notoriously became a terrible father and husband, unsurprisingly had awful examples as a child. His father, Alfred Lennon, was in the merchant navy and would be away for up to half a year. During one of these absences, his mother, Julia, got pregnant from an affair with another man. When his dad returned, the parental relationship absolutely disintegrated. His father wanted to take him out of Britain entirely to go live in New Zealand. After a blowout with his now estranged wife, the elder Lennon took his son to Blackpool to leave England. But mom followed, and confronted the pair. What ensued was a scarring moment where Lennon was forced to choose between his mother and his father. According to accounts, he twice chose to live with his father - but when his mom burst into tears, he changed his mind and stayed with his mom. His father then left and would not see his son again for over 20 years. John Lennon was five years old at the time. So, growing up, Lennon’s example of parenting was a shitty one. But nonetheless, he grew deeply attached to his mom, as she was the only constant in his life. On the other hand, he grew into that kid that was a complete shit disturber. Envious of others who had a dad around, and angry that he did not, he became the archetypal rebellious teenager with a chip on his shoulder. His mom bought him a guitar when he was 16. He started noodling around with it, and found quickly that he had some proficiency with it. That year, 1956, he started his first band, The Quarrymen. This was the band that would later become The Beatles. A 15 year old Paul McCartney joined the band as a rhythm guitarist in 1957, and convinced Lennon to let the even younger George Harrison join later that year. Unfortunately, Lennon’s mother Julia never saw the success her son would have in music. She was killed when she was hit by a car while she was walking home. So Lennon really did have awful parental examples and tragedy as he grew up: an absentee father who abandoned him, and a cheating mother who loved him but was killed far too young. This broken home would scar him and poison his future relationships. But the immediate reaction to the tragedy of his mother’s death was a deep dive into alcoholism, rage, fighting, and trauma. You know, positive things. Lennon dropped out of the Liverpool College of Art, where he went to school. All he had left was the guitar his mom gave him, the friends in his band, and the ability to maybe make some music. George Harrison, in contrast, had a terrific, stable upbringing in a loving home. Jackass. You don’t need to flex on John that hard right now, George. The youngest of four children, he was a bright student who enjoyed school but was somewhat disappointed in the lack of music education. Like McCartney and Lennon, he got a guitar in 1956 and taught himself to play. Harrison turned out to be by far the best guitarist in the band, and a gifted songwriter. Unlike the affable McCartney or the rebellious Lennon, Harrison would be called ‘the quiet Beatle’. He would pour all of his energy and emotion into his instrument. Harrison could certainly sing, and in any other band he would have likely been the lead singer - but somehow, instinctively maybe, he knew that Lennon and McCartney were both better singers and both better songwriters. Where someone with more ego would probably have left the band to find a different creative outlet, Harrison looked on this as an opportunity instead to become the best musician in the band. Loyal, creative, industrious and gifted, he was the perfect addition to The Quarrymen. Stuart Sutcliffe was working as a garbage man when he met John Lennon at the Liverpool College of Art. It was how he paid for his own tuition. Sutcliffe was not really a musician - but he was a talented painter. He remained close with Lennon after Lennon dropped out of school following the death of his mother. Despite not being deeply invested in music, Lennon leaned into Sutcliffe to get him to join The Quarrymen. Sutcliffe managed to sell one of his paintings and used the profits to buy a bass guitar. He and Lennon moved in together in 1960. Sutcliffe’s playing was rudimentary at best (insert your shot at bass players here). But even by playing 1-4-5 on a chord he was able to add to the sound of the band, and to anchor the rhythm section. Perhaps Sutcliffe’s most lasting impact on the band - aside from his friendship with Lennon - was his influence on the name. The Quarrymen did not sit well with the young artist. He instead insisted that they rechristen themselves as ‘The Beatals’ as a tribute to Beatal Buddy Holly and the Crickets. The band toyed with this alternate spelling and then instead went with The Silver Beetles, and then The Silver Beatles, finally settling on the spelling we know the best with The Beatles. The newly named band was only lacking one member: a drum machine. But it was the 60s, so they had to settle for Pete Best. Best also grew up in Liverpool, but unlike his bandmates, he was born in Madras, India to British parents. The family left there in 1944 during the WWII in what can only have been the worst possible time to go on a cruise. They settled in Liverpool, where Best grew up. Best’s mother Mona apparently won a bundle of cash on a wild bet at the races and decided to use the money to purchase a large house in Liverpool. The place had previously been the home of a private club, and had a large entertainment space below. Best convinced his mother to open this space and turn it into a club. The Quarrymen played this venue, called The Casbah Coffee Club, on a number of occasions. Best fell in love with the idea of being a musician. He got his mom to buy him a drum kit and formed his own band. Unsurprisingly, since his family owned the place, they became the house band at The Casbah. But while Best had his own venue and lots of work, his band was quickly going nowhere and broke up. The Beatles, on the other hand, just got a manager and a ton of road gigs in Hamburg, Germany. They needed a drummer, and they needed one quick. Best gave up a chance to become a teacher to go and drum for the band. Turns out he was the only one in the band that spoke passable German, so he was invaluable. It was Malcolm Gladwell that famously pointed out (and used The Beatles as an example) that it takes about 10,000 hours to become really, really good at something. For the next two years or so, the band lived for extended periods of time in Hamburg, making their living playing live music. They became seasoned performers and musicians. They were able to hone their craft in small clubs, playing the same venues night after night after night. During this formative period, Sutcliffe decided that this particular grind was not for him. He tapped out to go to art school in Germany instead. Yes, there is a German art school joke there. You know it and I know it. But instead of that humor, there is only tragedy. Sutcliffe died in 1962 of a sudden cerebral hemorrhage. Unsurprisingly, the death hit Lennon the hardest. He kept pieces of Sutcliffe’s art in his home until his own untimely passing. McCartney moved to play bass. The Beatles were now a four piece. They finished their second year in Hamburg and came back home a far more polished and professional group, possessing the kind of credibility only experience can bring. They started playing local gigs, most notably at the famous Cavern Club. Very soon, the buzz around them was huge. At the Cavern Club, they were seen and ‘discovered’ by a local music writer and record store owner named Brian Epstein. He convinced the band to let him be their manager. Epstein got the band signed to the EMI record label, and under the tutelage of legendary producer George Martin. Martin knew - just knew - that The Beatles were lightning in a bottle. But he was just as sure that one of them was simply not as good as the others. Martin had the band in to do a recording session and it was abundantly clear that Best’s drumming style was not going to transfer well to vinyl. According to one version, Best had learned to play drums as loud as possible at the urging of McCartney and out of necessity in the venues they were playing in Hamburg. Because of this, his style was completely unsuitable for studio work. According to another version, he never really gelled with the band, despite all those concerts in Germany. He would not get the signature haircut. He would not wear the signature outfits of those early days. Either way, Martin told McCartney, Harrison, and Lennon that in order to make a record, they needed to hire a session drummer instead. After some deliberation among the three, they asked their new manager Brian Epstein to fire Best. The Beatles were not without a growing fan base in Liverpool. What makes this even more interesting, according to some accounts, is that Best was at the time the most popular Beatle, with tons of young fans. A bitter Best would speculate that this was the real reason behind his dismissal - that Lennon especially could not stand being overshadowed and being less popular than someone else in his own band. The boys themselves would refute this story, and say that even in the beginning, recording music was really at the core of the band - not just performance - and for that reason alone, Best did not cut it. Either way, Best was out. So now they needed a drummer. Again. Richard Starkey was born in Liverpool in 1940. He was an only child. He was raised by overprotective parents who were fixated on his upbringing. Either by coincidence or consequence, young Ritchie was a sickly child. This caused stress in his household. His father did not cope well with this, and simply pulled a Homer Simpson and went on benders lasting several days. Predictably, his parent’s marriage collapsed. Starkey was 6. But the divorce of his mom and dad was not the worst thing that happened to the kid at age 6. He had to go into hospital for an appendectomy. The operation went poorly, and he contracted peritonitis and lapsed into a coma which lasted for days. He was bedridden for 12 months during his recovery. He fell behind in school and it took him years to catch up. Just as he did, in 1953, he contracted fucking tuberculosis (for which there was no vaccine at the time) and had to go into isolation in a sanatorium for two years. Because tuberculosis patients are notoriously incapacitated and weak, part of the treatment for them is constant activity. Starkey joined the hospital band and learned to drum. He fell further and further behind at school, but became a better and better drummer. As he really had nothing else to do, he took to drumming like an octopus to a garden a fish to water. Lennon, McCartney, and Harrison all came to their instruments in a kind of haphazard way and got their 10,000 hours in Hamburg; Starkey literally spent two years drumming before any of them had even touched a fretboard. He got his own drum kit in 1957, a second hand affair. He joined a couple of local bands and it was here that he took the stage name Ringo Starr. His drum solos were billed as ‘Starr Time’. One of his bands, Rory Storm and the Hurricanes, were given top billing over The Beatles at a show in Germany. Starr met Lennon, McCartney, Harrison, and Best there. They all shared a Liverpool background and heritage, though Starr’s illnesses had made it impossible for him to have moved in the same circles. So when The Beatles fired Best and needed a new drummer, Starr was the right man from the right place at the right time. He was asked to quit The Hurricanes and join The Beatles. In what can only be described as the best decision of his life, Starr agreed. Starr’s dynamics and feel were perfect for studio sessions. The final piece of the band was in place - the line up was set. George Martin got the band into the studio to record their first single, Love Me Do. They followed that up with Please Please Me. Both songs were released as singles in Britain and got immediate buzz and airplay. Their label, EMI-Parlophone, knew they had a good thing on their hands and really, really wanted an album. George Martin went to the boys to ask what other material they had. They only really had their current live set. Martin decided to get them into a studio. Please Please Me (1963), their debut album, was recorded in less than 13 hours and was essentially their current live set. The record was an absolute smash. Consider the songs on it that are now classics: I Saw Her Standing There.Please Please Me.Love Me Do.Do You Want to Know a Secret. Not to mention the hit cover (and Ferris Bueller dance tune) Twist and Shout. Very few debut albums have ever been as popular. It immediately went to number one on the British charts. The tour in support sold out at every venue. The band had arrived, and soon demand was high for a follow up. With the Beatles (1963), their second record, was the first one released in North America. Like its predecessor, it was a mixture of covers and original material. Whether by accident or design, this made the album appealing to both European and North American audiences. The cover of Chuck Berry’s Roll Over Beethoven was a particular hit, was sung by George Harrison, and was a favorite of Lennon and McCartney. It showcased the Rock influence and allowed the kids from Liverpool to put their own spin on a new classic. Add to that the covers of Smokey Robinson’s You Really Got a Hold on Me, Barrett Strong’s Money (That’s What I Want) and The Marvelettes’ Please Mister Postman, and you had instant American appeal. Of course, not every song was a cover. All My Loving was a Lennon/McCartney tune that hit number one on some international charts. Critics called it “...arguably the best LP-only track the Beatles did before 1964,” and stated that if it had actually been released in America, it would have easily hit #1. No matter. The follow up to their debut was strong. The songs got amazing airplay. Kids in America loved the band and sang along. There was nothing even close to them in Pop and Rock. The only act that was even a parallel in popularity was Elvis Presley. Famously, Ed Sullivan had the band perform on his late night show. It turned out to be a TV moment bigger than anything before. Fans screamed and lost their minds. Their haircuts were suddenly everywhere. Their musicianship, their good looks and their fresh takes on American tunes meant that they were almost instantly popular. A Hard Day’s Night (1964) was their first complete album without any covers. It is much more Poppy than the 50’s-inspired Rock records that preceded it. Here, The Beatles captured the hearts of their teenage audience and became international stars. Right from the signature chord that opens the title track on the disc, listeners knew that they were hearing something brand new. The title of the song and album came from a malapropism that Ringo once said, and that everyone picked up on and loved. Several songs from the album shot to number one on the charts, one right after the other. I Should Have Known Better was a catchy little number that got lots of airplay by being a B-Side to the title track. And I Love Her became that slow song that got played at school dances around the world. And Can’t Buy me Love became one of the biggest songs of the decade. The Beatles did not just support the album with a tour - there was a film that was part of the package as well. Not only were the Fab Four writing new music, touring and performing - they were “acting” in movies. So you might have picked up on this, but The Beatles were doing pretty okay. At this point the band were everywhere. The radio. The TV. The cinema. They were on products. You could buy action figures. There were comic books and lunch boxes and wrapping paper and coloring books. This was Beatlemania. The boys from Liverpool were now more than a music group - they were a cultural phenomenon who, in America, led in music what has come to be known as The British Invasion. Beatles for Sale, their fourth record, came out later in 1964. In contrast to previous releases, the Fab Four appear on the cover looking more sombre. Everyone was waiting for another record. But the band were tired - not just because of the grind of recording, touring and performing, but because what they thought was going to be a modest career in music had absolutely ballooned beyond anyone’s expectations. Lennon and McCartney were an incredibly prolific songwriting team, George Harrison was an incredible songsmith in his own right, and Ringo was the drummer. But the band simply did not have enough new material for an album. Instead of waiting, they did some covers. Chuck Berry’s Rock and Roll Music was a made-for-radio track that got heavy rotation in the USA. Honey Don’t was a Carl Perkins cover sung by Ringo. Words of Love was a Buddy Holly cover, with the band paying homage to the artist who inspired their name. Ironically, the two biggest songs from these recording sessions didn’t even make it on the album. I Feel Fine became a non-album single. It was recorded during the sessions for Beatles for Sale but did not make the cut. And Eight Days a Week made it onto the European version of the album, but was omitted from the American version. In retrospect, the album seems more like a release to meet the needs of the label to continue to cash in on Beatlemania than a creative project by the Fab Four. The peak of their run as a group of teen idols - and really the peak of Beatlemania - was 1965’s Help! It was accompanied by the movie of the same name, and was presented as a film soundtrack. The movie was a hit, as was the single of the same name off the album. Notably, only one song on the record was over three minutes in length. But what was really interesting about this particular release is that even though the songs were short, made-for-radio affairs, the complexity and depth of those songs were unlike anything else that the band had written so far. While the title track was pure bubblegum Pop, and tracks like Ticket to Ride were much the same, Lennon’s You’ve Got to Hide Your Love Away most certainly was not. This song was sombre and sad and full of regret, and was either about lost love or the death of his mother, depending on your interpretation. But even that great song was not the standout on the album. If The Beatles had never created any other music, Yesterday would still be an incomparable masterpiece of songwriting. This McCartney tune, just over two minutes in length, holds the record for being the most covered song in all of history. ALL OF HISTORY. Jesus. The melody famously came to McCartney in a dream, and he was panicked that it may have belonged to someone else. The song’s working title was ‘scrambled eggs’, and the music came before the lyrics. Just think of singing Yesterday with the working lyrics of ‘scrambled eggs...oh my baby how I love your legs…’ McCartney stitched down the real haunting lyrics, and the band tried to perform the song with their lineup. It didn’t work. It wasn’t until producer George Martin suggested recording it with a string quartet that everything clicked with the song. McCartney did the vocals and a true classic was created. Another important landmark had been reached with Yesterday: the band learned that they could do things in the studio that could transcend what they could perform live. Nowadays, it is no big deal for the studio album to sound different than the live performance, and to have various session players come in to tweak the recordings. In fact, the band had had backing instruments on other songs, but never to this extent. Until the album Help! - and really, until the song Yesterday - The Beatles had been a standard four-piece Pop band cranking out hits. Now they became songwriters who were able to explore ever more complex arrangements and emotions in music. This transformation of the band from teen idols to actual serious musicians took place largely on the album Rubber Soul, which was released in 1965. It also marks the beginning of their open relationship with recreational drugs, though the influence of those substances on their music is somewhat muted. Retrospectively, it is easy to see that the songs that are on the album are not simply Pop tunes. Day Tripper is not about going for a car ride (It took me soooooo long to find out -- but I found out…) and Norwegian Wood is about an extramarital affair that Lennon was having that went very badly. McCartney would say about the ending of that song that it “...could have meant I lit a fire to keep myself warm, and wasn’t the decor of the house wonderful? But it didn’t, it meant I burned the fucking place down as and act of revenge…” Norwegian Wood was also the first truly popular song to incorporate a sitar. Simply put, Rubber Soul showed that The Beatles were maturing as artists. Even more, it was clear that the band were thinking about albums as concepts, rather than just a group of catchy songs. Everything on the album was more sophisticated and complex. Nowhere Man and Michelle and Girl and the hauntingly sad In My Life were clear evidence of this. After a long period of grinding, the band had levelled up. All of this work peaked with The Beatles’ seventh studio album, Revolver, which was released in 1966. Seven albums in four years. For perspective, QotSA have only released seven studio albums in almost 23 years as a band, and August 2021 will mark 4 years since the release of Villains. Revolver saw the boys from Liverpool mature as artists and begin to truly experiment with music. It is considered by many to be the band’s greatest album, surpassing even Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band. To many, it is a capstone to their career and their artistic high water mark. In 2004, one critic went so far as to say that this was the “...best album the Beatles ever made, which means the best album by anybody.” This would also be the last album that they toured behind. What is clearly different on Revolver is the band’s liberal use of imagination tabletsLSD. I mean, just think of the concept behind the Ringo Starr song Yellow Submarine. Hey boys, if that song is not influenced by acid, then no song is. And if you watched the cartoon movie (which I personally believe set animation back by about 20 years and did not come out until 1968) you know I am correct. Revolver opened the doors of music for Psychedelic Rock and for the use of drugs to influence the creative process. Not that using drugs was particularly new; but now going out and getting high to create music was an open and acknowledged practice. Hmm. I wonder if any bands ever went out into the desert and did something similar. Anyways, catchy tracks like Taxman (which was the first beatles song with political undertones ) and Good Day Sunshine and Got to Get You Into My Life make the album a true Lennon/McCartney classic, but it is the haunting gut-punch of [Eleanor Rigby] that presaged all of the sadness and loneliness that bands like Radiohead are still doing today. Revolver was a masterpiece. The challenge was to follow that album up. And that’s when things got really interesting. Links to QOTSA Josh Homme and Sir Paul McCartney both worked on the Dave Grohl project Sound City. Apparently, McCartney was almost a member of Them Crooked Vultures - but learned from Dave Grohl that John Paul Jones already had the gig. McCartney also went out of his way to play a show out in the desert for Josh and 300 fans. Imagine Sir Paul McCartney performing a show just for you. That is just amazing. Their Music Please Please Me Love Me Do I Saw Her Standing There Twist and Shout - The famous Ferris Bueller scene. All My Loving A Hard Day’s Night Can’t Buy Me Love Eight Days a Week Help! You’ve Got to Hide Your Love Away Yesterday Day Tripper Norwegian Wood In My Life Yellow Submarine Taxman Eleanor Rigby Show Them Some Love /Beatles - a huge subreddit with over 125,000 members. /TheBeatles - almost 26,000 members. Previous Posts Band of the Week #1-25 The Jimi Hendrix Experience Black Flag Alain Johannes Pixies Truckfighters Melvins Muse Stone Temple Pilots Black Sabbath Baroness Black Rebel Motorcycle Club The Black Angels The Black Keys
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